I went looking for Wonders answers on 18 to 88 and found this comment by one of their guys. It's the second comment posted.
George
http://www.18to88.com/2010-arc...l#comments

This shows me that the Jets have a pretty consistent rushing attack, win or lose. They rarely get stuffed, and averaging 147 in losses has kept them close in every game. Can we stuff them? Maybe. But teams have stopped them before and gotten stuck in a close game with them too. Here's why.

The statistic that stands out for me with the Jets is that they are 9-0 when they win the turnover battle, and 0-5 when they lose the turnover battle. (they are 2-2 when the turnovers are even). You read that right. It may seem obvious, but no other team is that blantantly one-sided each way. Most teams can pass their way out of a game or two.

In other words, a stout defense and consistently strong rushing attack will keep you in games, but if you turn the ball over, without the strong passing game to overcome the mistakes, you're doomed to lose every time. Same goes the other way. Force turnovers with a stout defense with a consistent rushing attack and you'll win nine time out of nine.

We have to force Sanchez into a couple of mistakes -- mix up the coverage, confuse him. Trick him into thinking he has Braylon one-on-one and sneak a safety in to get a pick or two. Maybe we can get Greene to cough up the ball -- he's been known to do that. Maybe Brad Smith or Cotchery cough up a return, since they are newbies to returns this year. I think this is all very possible, and it's the key to burying this team before you find yourself in the mud pit with them late in an ugly game. With Manning, the Colts will likely still have a good chance to be the first team to beat the Jets losing the turnover battle (see above: passing your way out of it), because the times the Jets faced a real QB and won the TO battle, it was very close... but who wants to be in THAT situation. A bad bounce, a poor call, something could go wrong.

The Jets may be an ugly team, but with that consistent rushing attack that they use in wins and losses (as shown above), their strong defense against the pass (and our not so great rushing attack), and their weak passing game (at best), that will probably determine whether this is a 21 point margin in the 4th Q that they can't overcome, or a one score game that could go either way if the ball bounces wrong.

No one has discussed Peyton. The Colts live and die with him. Against good teams,Peyton has to play his A game. He is remarkably consistent with good receivers but everyone has good days and bad. The Jets will blitz even more than usual. The Colts have a good offensive line but they can be beat.
The Colts won a slew of very close games that they should have or could have lost. I can't remember another team going undefeated with so many close games. The Colts really are not dominant.
The game is in Indianapolis and the Colts have mega playoff experience.Sanchez must play smart and they must establish the rush. I think this game is too hard to call. The Colts should win but,the Jets can beat them. It's all about Peyton,the Jets running game and the rookie Sanchez.

Superbowl Predictions

Jets get shit stomped. Really all this hype is unreal. Yes I predicted the Jets to win last week and in the exact fashion that they did. But I just feel Indy and Peyton will expose the Jets D like a 2 dollar whore. This is not NOT the same team they played in Week 15. Rex Ryan is a smart coach and he should know this. I'm not riding Peytons nuts. But rookie QB on the road in the championship game. You all saw what happened to Flacco last year. (and Flacco is a better qb than sanchez, rookie season to rookie season as well) And the Ravens D last year was better than the Jets D this year. Once again Indy's strength is the pass as SD's was and the Jets have a terrific pass defense. But Indy has a more complete receiving core. They also have a better run game than SD. They don't have a good run game just a better one than SD; i'd say colts run game is above average but good enough to get yardage against the jets when needed. Jets have no offense, run game yes but they're not gonna have a lucky 1 in 30 break away td. Colts safeties and linebackers are better than SD's even with their #1 safety out for the year. Colts will win thats a fact. Jets run is over. Sorry Wonder I don't want to rain on your parade but Im willing to bet my left nut the Jets lose. The 7 point spread is risky business though. Not a fan of betting on this game. If I had to put a score on it I'd say 31-10. Sanchez throws 2 int's.

NFC Championship

Saints win. No question about it. Saints at home, domeland security (saints D) back to health in full force. The cowboys lost that game themselves last week. Garrett reminded me of a spitting image of Kevin Gilbride. It was almost a carbon copy. The first quarter the Vikings had no answer for the Cowboys Offense they were moving the ball at will. Til they got in the red zone or near the red zone. Then a 5 yd toss to your slowest running back (Marion Barber) and your in the hole 2nd and 15. Same with the next series except with a botched snap. And the Cowboys D kept them in the Game. They were only down by two scores heading into the 4th quarter. With all the turnovers and bonehead plays going against them. Vikings do not stand a chance. Saints are in full force. Saints win easy in this game. People want to compare Cowboys beat the Saints. Vikings beat down the Cowboys. But if you watched the Minny Dallas game, Minnesota did not dominate the Boys as bad as the score indicated. The Cowboys beat themselves and their receivers sucked a fat one. But if you want to make that case. Vikings were undefeated at home 9-0 and .500, 4-4 on the road. With losses to the Bears when they had to win and the Cards when they had to win (they almost lost the 1st round bye cause of that kind of shaky play). But the Cardinals beat down the Vikings in Arizona. Badly like 31-10 in a game the Vikings had to win. When the Saints lost to the Cowboys they were not playing as good of football Dallas was in a must win situation before the December Snowball crushed them. And the Saints had almost their whole secondary injured as well as Pierre Thomas and Reggie Bush (injured against Dallas). Saints are rested fired up and the Vikings have a history of losing in the NFC Championship game just like the iggles, Minny lost to us in 2000 and got destroyed. And lost a heartbreaker to Atlanta when they were clearly the best team in the NFL in 98. Saints will win and I would bet them for sure giving up 3.5 at home. Saints win easily. 45-28

Excellent stuff.

The Colts are a much different team when they have a lead. If the Jets fall behind in this game, they will lose.

If the Jets do not turn the ball over, they will win this game. Hopefully, Ryan and his coaching staff will use the 2006 AFC Championship game and the 49ers game this year as a template to defeat the Colts.

In the 2006 AFC Championship game, Cowher came out throwing. They used play action a lot. On defense, the Steelers got a lot of three and outs. The Colts were a poor 3 for 13 on third down. Remember, the Steelers had a much better offense than this Jets team. This is why the Jets must win the turnover battle. Despite the Steelers being a minus 1 in the turnover ratio, they still won the game. I do not think the Jets could be minus 1 and win. This year the 49ers should have defeated the Colts. Despite being in control of this game for three quarters, 49ers head coach Mike Singletary said, "A couple dropped balls make the difference in a game like this," "Any missed opportunities in a game like this are going to bite you in the end. The only thing I can say is we came here to win the football game."

Let us hope the Jets do not turn the ball over or make mental mistakes.

Pete and Glenn, great insight as usual. I have a combination of both comments together, thinking it is the Colts' game to lose, that the Colts should be and correctly are the favored team.

Why do the media (and most fans) like to ignore Peyton's playoff career stats? Only a 24 TD's to 18 INT's...and if you take away three big games vs "very bad playoff defenses" Denver in 2003/04 and KC in 2003--his ratio is a below average 12 TD's 17 INT's.

Even during the SB run a few years back....his TD-INT ratio was 5-7. The Colts won that SB because of their defense and running game (and yes, I do give Manning credit for a big 2nd half in the title game vs New England).

My point is--Manning CAN get frustrated, confused and held down in the playoffs. The track record shows it. Teams that play the 3-4 (Pats, Steelers, Chargers) have really given him fits in his playoff career. Even last week...Manning didnt exactly light the Ravens up. That game could have EASILY been close if the Ravens caught a few breaks--Reed's fumble on the INT return, the bogus penalty that set up the Colts 2nd TD, and the terrible PI call which took away Reed's 2nd INT. The Ravens defense did well in that game--the Jets D is better then their D.

I see the Jets as more then capable of frustrating Manning tommorrow.

Mike L and Mayor- Thanks for your insight, both of you.

You disagreed on the Jets game yet both had valid points. The Jets frustrated Manning...for about 1.5 quarters. Manning is a very good quarterback, but he does not play defense. There were many years where he had a ton of pressure to score constantly, and that changes the mindset of a patient QB into one that has to gamble a little more. When he has a defense, it comes together for him and he can be exactly what he needs to be.