We went back to the year 2003 to look at the selection of William Joseph, the last DT we have taken #1 in the draft.
And it was scary.
It was a who's who of draft busts.
|Player||Pick Overall||Starts||Sacks||Pro Bowls|
The Blutarsky- 0.0 Pro Bowls.
So we went back and took a look at every DT taken in Round 1 going back to 2000
|Year||Player||Pick Overall||Starts||Sacks||Pro Bowls||Wonder's Grade|
|2009||B.J. Raji||9||1||1||0||4* jury's out|
WOOF! Pathetic!! Vomit!!!
Let's review the rating system we are using in the Draft Project (1=Star/Multiple Pro Bowls, 2= Pro Bowl player, 3=Solid starter, 4= starter who is replaceable, 5= second string, 6= fringe, 7= bust). These guys AVERAGED being replaceable starters.... AVERAGED! Part of this is the system, where a 1st rounder who is not a starter is essentially a bust. But nonetheless, when you draft in Round 1 your goal is not a 3, it is a 2, with 1's being the true goal. The total number of 1's and 2's were 7 players. That is a .220 batting average. Awful. If I am going to hit in the draft in the first round one out of every five years, I am doing something very wrong. I do not want to hear about getting a 3 or 4. Starters? If I am drafting well my 5th round David Diehl can get to that level. The record here demonstrates that we are not generating impact players when we as a league draft DT in Round 1.
We have been saying it here on the UltimateNYGiants Blog for a while now: drafting Defensive Tackles early is no joy. Now we have some hard data, certainly modern day data going back to the 31 First Round Draft Choices taken in the past 10 years. 31 cream of the crop. The elite. Plenty of Top 10 picks. And they as a group S*CK. What does this tell you? I know what it tells me:
1) You better know what you are doing if you are intent on drafting a DT in round 1. You must avoid them here.
2) The meat grinder of the line of scrimmage takes its biggest toll on these guys. Guys like Tommie Harris and Albert Haynesworth are the ones who make it to the promised land, and once they get there they get injured.
3) IT TAKES 3 YEARS FOR THESE BOYS TO BECOME MEN. Physically they simply are not ready. Some of the statistical evidence is shown in the low number of pro bowls that these guys make. 31 first rounders have 19 Pro Bowls collectively between them! Collectively, they don't make an impact at the beginning, they don't make an impact at the end, AND on top of all of that their careers are not long enough.