The Draft Project

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The Draft Project

Written by Andy Furman

Thursday, 11 March 2010 00:00

The Gears are turning. UltimateNYG is busy at work evaluating the 2010 NFL Draft.

Pete and Wonder are both working on a specific evaluation of the players. We attempted to be analytical in such a way that not only can the players be graded, but also that Pete and Wonder can also be graded in 2013. Yes, after 3 seasons, we will have a precise method of grading out everyone so that we can objectively rate the football and the analysis. We won't be perfect but at least we'll be sticking our necks out with content that we believe is strong. The system we are creating will be a work in progress too. But it should be able to VERIFY whether the analysis is correct.

This list below is not set in stone, but we have a preliminary rating system in mind for each player.

1= Outright Star/Superstar Potential. Impact player with multiple Pro Bowls.
2= Great Player. Pro Bowl either in name or not.
3= Solid Professional Football Player. A guy who starts, plays well, the guts of your team.
4= Starter. Holds down his job but is eventually replaceable.
5= Second tier player. Second string, special teams. Dirty work.
6= Fringe player. Barely on the roster. Camp Fodder.
7= Bust. Underachievement for a highly ranked player or a later round guy who fails to make the roster.

The preliminary thinking is that if you are within +/- 1 level you will get credit, perhaps 1 point. If you are pinpoint precise on a player's rating you will get 2 points. We will have plenty of time to tweak it, but there has to be more reward for a high grade for Tom Brady and similarly a low grade for Ryan Leaf.

As examples of how players grade out, 1=Strahan, 2=Tuck, 3= Diehl, 4=Cofield, 5= Tollefson, 6=Koets, 7=Moss, Wright.

Pete will be doing the top 100 prospects. Wonder Psychopath will be doing the Top 200. If you think it is easy to do this, we welcome you to go on record! Submit a list of your Top 100 prospects with a rating for each player. Maybe in just a few short sentences you quickly realized that this is not as easy a job as you previously thought and that your jewels will be on the chopping block. I know for certain that I could never do this because I simply do not watch enough college football. But there are more than a few of you out there who have been busy commenting on a lot of football players. Take the plunge and go on record. If you beat Wonder's score for grading the Top 200, I promise to get you onto the NY Times.

Comments (14) Add Comment

I'm in...
written by The Mayor, March 10, 2010

NY Times here we come! 200 is pretty friggen deep though. One suggestion to add to your system would be to include confidence points. Like how espn does college bowl pick em without the spread. Instead its outright winners just you put a higher confidence value on ga/es you are for sure of. So in this case, you would place the highest value on the player you think will perform best or to the grade level you picked. For instance, I think Jahvid Best will tear shit up in the NFL and will be a 2 off the bat depending on which team picks him up. (if he goes to cleveland forget about it mangina will find some way to screw it up). So in my case I would put a max confidene value in Best being a 2. Also, it will be pretty tough to tell in 3 years if a player will be the next best thing i.e. strahan and long term staple of a franchise. It would take more like 5 years for example Cromartie the Jets new CB was awesome now he's suspect. I hope Im wrong but I think the Jets got a good deal, but a lot of people from SD are saying otherwise and think SD got the better deal and that cromartie now sucks. Time will tell. But where would you rate him under the proposed rating system?

I will gather my top 200. See you in 3 years Wonder.

Mind you I am on record sometime around when we were looking at our possible final 09 record and where we'd be drafting and saying hopefully we lose to Minnesota pick somewhere around 18 and land Weatherspoon. I would love to see us take Weatherspoon. I think he is a solid LBer and playmaker, I've watched him for years in college. Also, everyone is praising Rolando McClain. Wonder if that will change now that everyone knows he has Chrones' Disease. He even cut his pro day short today due to the Disease making him tired and have cramps. Apparently its an intestinal disease and David Garrard has it and plays ok with it. And Rolando's had the disease since his freshman year of high school and still won the Butkus award for LBer but it is a risk. He could easily fall to us now, but I think I'd rather have Weatherspoon in the 1st and then maybe Spikes in the 2nd. Or trade down for Weatherspoon around the 20's and then two picks in the second or extra 3rd. Or if Jason Pierre Paul is there at 15 or Spiller maybe I think if we went best athlete available it would have to be one of those two.

great stuff
written by irishmacmystic, March 10, 2010

hey as a newcomer to the site i had no idea you guys did this, and i think it is fantastic...clint sintim is a great example of someone who would have been tough to grade last year i think....he could end being a good player, and he good be a disappointment...do we have any clue about ramses barden right now???.bomar??.we just don't know.(as an aside i was looking back at the 2002 draft the other day and i feel pretty confident that other than the shockey pick we could have done better collectively to make the choices).....i assume we kind of all can do our mock drafts as we get closer.....i will consider doing a top 200 rating but i agree that is a lot of work, and it is easer to give a bar room opinion then have an opinion memorialized on this..so i will agree to do the top 5 and then get into the NYT....kidding...i would love to do a real time draft as the giants pick...of course you would have to trust us that we are telling the truth unless we can text or email the picks in real time....the good news is that the actual gm's obviously struggle too with this...and this is fun so let's not draw and quarter someone for evaluations which might happen to be wrong.....thanks for taking this so seriously, it is great....

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written by I Bleed Blue, March 10, 2010

Here's the report from NFL Draft Scout on Alabama LB's Rolando McClain's illness-shortened Pro Day workout, via Don Kausler, Jr. of the Birmingham News. Interesting that he revealed he suffers from Crohn's Disease, a painful inflammation of the intestines.

Linebacker Rolando McClain ran the 40-yard dash in 4.6 seconds, but when running an agility drill, he became ill. He later disclosed that he has battled Crohn's Disease since his freshman year in high school. It's an inflammatory diseasse of the intestines. McClain said he treats it with medication. The junior All-American will perform two more times for pro teams in upcoming weeks and hopes to get his 40-yard dash time down to 4.5 seconds, to please himself, not the pros. McClain also disclosed that he has suffered from a hamstring injury since the Oct. 24 Tennessee game, and injury that his teammates did not know about. - Don Kausler Jr. - The Birmingham News

Wonder if the illness will make teams think twice about drafting him?

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written by ultimatenyg, March 11, 2010

Mayor- It may have been Pete who did not get a particular player's name spelled right or whatever, but when it comes time for going on record, the i's will be dotted and the t's will be crossed for him. Wonder has yet to comment on player eval beyond a few quick notes. Your comments on "confidence" are great feedback, as we can give each evaluator the ability to tag as many as 5(?) players that they feel particularly strong OR WEAK about, and giving added credit if correct (and loss if incorrect). Also, there has to be a way that the top 200 gets graded for 'finding them' also. I.e. what is to stop me from picking all of the players from a Division 3 school and submitting them as 7's and getting a perfect score?!!! There has to be a system for rewarding the strength of your top 200, ie you only get credit for a "bust" in the Top 200 if the player was also drafted or was ranked in a Nationally recognized list, giving contrarian credit. (Perhaps a fraction of a point for every player who is on an NFL roster in September, thereby rewarding merit that your Top 200 "made it.")

This project will not be a layup, but it can be done to evaluate the evaluators. if you would like to submit your top 100 or top 200, please contact me and I will post them as a Blog ENTRY. You'll be on record. And if you do a great job we'll be able to see it front and center.

This blog is committed to sharing information and insight. By verifying, we are making our best efforts to insure that the information is of value. If there are commenters out there who have value to add, this is an opportunity to share that and be validated. I'd like to know what your drafting opinion is, assuming it has some value. This is how it will be borne out.

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written by bbobely, March 11, 2010

This is a very interesting idea. The only problem I see is that 3 years down the line, you guys may be arguing about whether someone is a 3 or a 2. Or a 3 or a 4. Or a 4 or a 5. There needs to be a way for those rankings to be more objective than just the brief descriptions. Like maybe ranks consistently in the top 5 at his position for a 1. Or in some way integrating PFF's scores and weighting that against pro bowls or other selections.

Where would Eli fit in this evaluation?
written by Bukka, March 11, 2010

Accorsi rated Eli a 1, and he may be on the cusp. Phillip Rivers was also rated a 1, and he may be on the cusp. But the trade complicates things in that Merriman has reached (and may exceed)his 2-3 rating, and Nate Kaeding has probably exceeded his 3-4 rating. Just because Accorsi got the rating right doesn't necessarily mean the trade was good. That said, I'm on the fence on whether the trade should have been made in the first place. That Super Bowl was awfully nice, and the future is bright. Maybe it should simply make us all think twice about trading picks.

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written by ultimatenyg, March 11, 2010

I think what is coming through on this feedback is that we may not be able to perfectly slot someone, but we will get it pinned down pretty well.

If it is good consensus a player is a 2 after playing in the NFL for three years, the points would be 1-2-1-0-0-0-0.

If the consensus is split between a player being a 2 or a 3 after the three years is over, then it is going to get the total of 4 points allocated like this: 0-2-2-0-0-0-0. In keeping with a total of 4 points being allocated, for a #1 it should be 3-1-0-0-0-0-0. This rewards someone for sticking their neck out for a player, considering it would be easier for them to just rate them a 2 and "collect." Realistically speaking, there are only ~1 or 2 "stars" per team, so per draft class that means somewhere between 4 and 8 players will get that ranking.

When SUMMED for 100 and 200 players, there will be a good conclusion about how well or poorly the talent was evaluated.

In tweaking the Tom Brady and Ryan Leaf, if you have a 7 bust tag on a player in the first 3 rounds, you should probably get double points. And if you are able to find a 1 or 2 that was drafted in Round 4 or lower likewise you get double.

I do not want the points system to be too complicated. I just want there to be risks, rewards and acknowledgement of identification of talent for where it ends up.

master
written by stoney, March 11, 2010

Geeze the wheels are turning alright- slowly! Adam you better alert your better half Wonder and pick up the pace. We have already gone through the draft backwards and forwards we have a nice list to draw from and it's going to be a great draft. Special treats: Major Wright, Lindsey Witten (ct) an inside backer at BC with Giant connections & Matt Tennent. prime Time talent- Jason Paul Pierre and Weatherspoon and round 2 Nate Allen then Anthony Dixon & Dexter McCluster roll around. very deep draft...~stoney

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written by irishmacmystic, March 11, 2010

i fully support the draft project, and would never seek to impede its progress....but the concern which obsesses me is the giant draft....all of us do something for a living, and likely we do it well......but for some reason we believe we can be gm's, and do a better job at drafting than the pros.....shockingly sometimes we do....i along with most of us had hakeem nicks as our first round pick last year, although i changed to maualuga when he fell down to us...i was fine with the nicks selection though, and i would have picked sintim and beatty as well...nothing shocking there, nothing brilliant.....i personally believe i can make some pretty good selections in the first four rounds, i have real doubts about my ability in the mid to later rounds.....but frankly the gm's don't do that great a job in those rounds either, witness our last two picks last year both cut....this year i vote for a trade down, where we bag weatherspoon, spikes in round 2, darrell stuckey s in round 3 unless we want to go dexter mccluster rb/slot/returner or javier arenas cb returner....and with our extra pick try to get a DT.....nothing brilliant, but very solid...would i go on the record on 100 or 200 picks? i admit my deficiencies there....BUT i will match Reese on my first few selections.....yes i believe i can deliver on that, and my bet is most of you can too...

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written by Craig, March 11, 2010

Andra Davis was released from the Broncos, He was an ILB in a 3-4 but hes 250 lbs and had 90 tackles is 13 starts last year. He's not a stud but he can get the job done. I dont know anything about him, maybe someone else does?

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written by ultimatenyg, March 11, 2010

Stoney-submit your picks and get on record.

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written by xtian, March 12, 2010

i dont watch college ftball at all, so i could never intelligently rate them--everything would be 2nd hand data.

i dont see how a 5th, 6th or 7th draft pick could ever be a bust cuz no expects them to be a superstar anyway. at best, they would get 4 rating.

i know they say wait 3 yrs to evaluate a draft, but strahan and armstead didnt make all-pro until their 5th year, and armstead didnt start until his 4th yr! both were drafted in that 93 draft, talk about a good one!

About the top 200
written by The Mayor, March 14, 2010

We should use a nationally rated sports site that rates the top 200 NFL prospects just by skill. Whether we use one developed by Kiper, McShay, or Scout.com. Just something that is on record that everyone has access to see. Then take those 200 players and we'll place the grades on them and give the confidence points to the first 100 (we should probably all know the top 100 players). This way everyone is grading the same crop of talent and there will be no DIII players and rating them crappy but being correct.

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