Phil Simms once again finds himself at the top of the Showtime 'NFL Picks' ledger, ahead of both Sapp and Collinsworth. Notable is that he is in 101st place out of ~41,000 entrants. That is no black swan, that is simply good analysis.
1) Injury/Helmet comments- enforcing a rule already in there. The game is played too high, stop hitting and tackling players high. It is about safety. When it is all over, players will thank the NFL for protecting them. It started with Safeties intimidating WRs, then went to LBers blowing up guys over the middle, then not enough sacking QBs but instead knocking them out. So this will stop some of that.
2) MIA-PIT. Miami has some holes. Henne is not throwing as well as he should be. He has a little wiggle in his throwing motion. You can throw the ball on Pittsburgh. They are not rushing the passer as well, their blitzing is not effective. WRs not great. Wallace is fast but not a good route-runner. Roethlisberger is one of the 5 best QBs in the NFL, tough, knows system well, good throwing abiity, very accurate, and he is BIG, you can't teach BIG.
3) BAL found a tough Patriot team, NEtook over (in last week's game), dominated play. NE rotates their players, very deep team, play harder, longer, than anyone else. Flacco is getting better. Ravens are a solid team.
4) Small QBshave such a tough time making it in the league. Everyone points to Drew Brees as the role model, but he stands tall, he has the arm of someone who is 6'5", he has big hands, he is a very good athlete. The reference was to Colt McCoy starting in Cleveland. McCoy is 6'1" and that is always going to be a hurdle for him making it in the NFL. Simms was not writing him or any other undersized QB off, but merely was pointing out that it is simply more difficult for these players to make it to the elite level required for success.
5) Jets- not sharp last week vs DEN, yet it broke for them, they found a way to win. VG good team with explosive players, they have a lot of ways to win. Sanchez has not been sharp, the rest/time off will be good for him during this bye week.
6) SD-NE- San Diego's WRs (Floyd) are very good, DE is undersized but looking as good as they have been in years. Special teams have faltered because there is too much turnover and injuries. The Rams beat the Chargers flat out across the board. There was one QB in the draft, Sam Bradford. Physically Bradford was head and shoulders above the rest in this year's draft. Cunningham, McCourtey, Spikes... these players for NE are getting better, progressing. Belichick has found his new set of players. His LBers and DEs are flexible. They do not yet have the "homerun hitters," the impact players. Is McCourtey the next Ty Law? You need an LT or Reggie White that is so good that it takes opponents' attention and allows the rest of the defense to play well.
7) NFL QBs. Tom Brady is hitting guys RIGHT IN STRIDE. Norv Turner remarks how well Brady plays when he makes just a few good throws. A lot of QBs are in the NFL who can throw the ball well. 20 QBs on the 32 teams are locked into their team. This league is not QB-challenged.
8) Simms did not talk DAL-NYG here this morning. He did make his comments on Showtime. He looks for Dallas to beat the Giants: "If the Giants win, it would be over for the Cowboys for sure.. I am going to take the Dallas Cowboys because of what it stands for, being 1-4, down there, and there are still a lot of good players on that team."