It was 22 years ago today, January 20, 1991, that Nose Tackle Erik Howard put a helmet on RB Roger Craig in Candlestick Park, jarring the ball loose.  LT recovered the fumble, the Giants drove down enough yards for a 5th FG, and the Gmen beat the 49ers 15-13.  Giants fans everywhere who are old enough can remember that day and it puts an instant smile on their faces. 

Last year was not all too different.  The 2011 season has to be the single luckiest series of events for Giants fans in any season that I can remember.  So many incredibly fortunate things happened to part the Red Sea for the Gmen.  A lesser known detail is how Ted Ginn Jr. got hurt the previous week vs the New Orleans Saints. This forced the 49ers to go with backup Kyle Williams at not only WR but more importantly (who woulda thunk?!) kickoff and punt returner.  The rest is history.  The Giants simply do not win the game without Williams' two turnovers, which were the only turnovers of the game.  

Turnovers are a big part of the game.  The Giants have beaten the "Three-peat" 49ers and Harbaugh's 49ers teams twice now in SF in the NFC Championship.  And both games ended via setups of key late turnovers. Considering that the Giants have also beaten the Patriots in the Super Bowl twice in the past 5 years, it is probably a little bit of relief to both franchises that neither the Patriots or the 49ers have to see the Giants from here on out.  And this seques this NY Giants blog writer's picks for the winners of today's Conference Championship games.  I am thinking 49ers-Patriots.  I'll be rooting for the Ravens in the AFC game and a competitive game in the NFC title matchup.

I would not be surprised by any of the 4 permutations for the Super Bowl.  Why? Because the NFL is slop.  Every team can win, and every week there is enough weakness is play that allows for any team to win.  Last week, we saw a prohibitively favored Broncos team choke vs the Ravens.  Anything is possible.  The Ravens deserved the win (the 2 DEN special teams TDs overshadowed how the Ravens were outplaying the Broncos otherwise).  What does it say that the #1 seed loses like that? 

In ATL, a similar storyline developed with the Seattle Seahawks essentially taking the first half off before showing up in the proper time zone and beating the Falcons.  If not for Pete Carroll pulling a Prevent Defense Special with 0:31 left, ATL is bounced from the playoffs with another none and done. What does it say that the #1 seed almost loses like that?

ATL is not a great football team.  I expect them to fold at some point along this journey.  When they were up 27-7 vs the Seahawks, I was not buying their stock.  They may win today, but I am not buying their stock.  And they may pull off a sad miracle and win 2 weeks from today, but I am not buying their stock.  Sure, it would be great for Tony Gonzalez to get a ring.  But other than that, these guys are not ready for primetime. They remind me a lot the 2006 Chicago Bears, who somehow slipped their fraud all the way to the Super Bowl before getting unmasked by Indianapolis.  I never bought the Bears stock that year either.  If SF learns ANYTHING from the Giants loss in last year's NFC Championship, it is that 60 minutes of concentration will win you this game.  If SF plays a clean game, they will beat ATL.  This is because, even though SF is not as good as SEA, Harbaugh is a better coach than Carroll any day of the year.  Harbaugh will kick the FG.  Harbaugh's team will not squander a FG at the end of the half.  Harbaugh will not go into the Super Prevent with 0:31.  Yes, Mike Smith and Pete Carroll each tried to choke the game, and ATL won because Carroll was the bigger loser.  There aren't many people who think Jim Harbaugh is a nice guy. If ATL wins today, I will not shed a tear for the Niners. But the 49ers should win because the have a decided edge in coaching.

There is not a great deal to say about the Ravens-Pats matchup.  These teams know each other very well.  Let's remember something from last year's AFC Championship. If Lee Evans hold onto the ball, the Ravens play the Giants in the Super Bowl.  I adhere to the belief that the post-video Cheaters are cursed now and that God has a plan for the Patriots to get teased in a maximum way before succumbing to an otherworldly defeat.  How else do you explain the Tyree helmet?  How else do you explain Welker inexplicably dropping a wide open ball that seals a title?  I believe the Giants were destined to win.  I believe the Patriots are destined to lose.  Until further notice, the only conclusion I can come up with from 2007 and 2011 is that the Patriots have sinned and now they are cursed.  So the way the blueprint looks, using the "cursed" prism, is that they will beat the Ravens, only to get teased again in a loss to the 49ers in XLVII.  If NE faces ATL, then it will be the cursed team vs the not-ready-for-primetime Mike Smith, which is akin to the unstoppable force meeting the immovable object.  I just have no answer to that one, other than to expect NE would somehow break the curse because Smith is too great a loser.

So here are the scenarios:

SF vs NE and SF wins the title. (This is my expected outcome.)
SF vs BAL and a coach named Harbaugh wins. (I would lean towards Jim.)
ATL vs BAL and BAL wins the title.
ATL vs NE and NE breaks the curse.

Follow me on Twitter, we'll have fun watching the games.     

For diehard NFL fans, there is nothing like the divisional round of the playoffs.  We get four games between the best teams in the league.  Because of free agency, the general quality of each team has been lowered, but it also means that the winners of wildcard weekend tend to surprise the 1&2 seeded "bye" teams more.  Yesterday's thriller in Denver was all about that trend continuing.

Here on this NY Giants blog, we know all about being the underdog in the divisional playoff round.  In fact, since free agency started, the Giants have reached the divisional round as the favored "bye" seed twice (2000 and 2008 [jan01 and jan09])) and have been the underdog road team twice (2007 and 2011).  It is a little more than anecdotal that the Giants have won two Super Bowl titles in those road dog years and come up empty (one divisional win but 0-1 Super Bowl) in the other two. The Giants have plenty of company in recent years in using the Wild Card round (4 playoff wins) as a route to the title:

1-2 Seed Super Bowl Winners 2005-Present
2008 Steelers
2009 Saints

3-6 Seed Super Bowl Winners 2005-Present
2005 Steelers
2006 Colts
2007 Giants
2010 Packers
2011 Giants

Of course we cherry-picked the place to start, in 2005.  But the point is that 5 out of the last 7 years have dealt a winner from the lower seeds.  My takeaway for what it means is simple- playing through and continuing to get better each week affords the team that "HAS TO PLAY" the wildcard round an extra opportunity to improve.  It is hard to argue that BAL was hot, having lost 4 of their remaining 5 regular season games.  Yet we all watched as the Ravens beat the 1-seeded Broncos despite allowing 14 points on special teams.      

Two teams that were peaking played each other last weekend.  The Redskins won their last 7 straight after starting 3-6.  The Seahawks had won 7 of their last 8 with 5 straight.      

We reviewed the tape of the first half of the Seattle-SF Week 16 rout.  The game was pretty much over at halftime, with the Seahawks up 28-6.  There was a pivotal play early that did mask some of the lopsidedness of this game, where Seattle blocked a chipshot FG, with the ball returned ~95 yards for a TD.  That was a 10 point swing.  But there is an interesting takeaway from watching this game- while we have focused on the exploits of RGIII, there are 2 other RGIII-lites out there in Kaepernick and Wilson.  This QB option offense (when you have a credible passing threat) is causing a lot of tumult in the NFL.  The trend over the past ~15 years has been more and more passing.  Enter these mobile QBs, who stress your entire defense, but particularly your LBers.  While the NFL is a passing league dominated by offense, these mobile QBs are shifting what these offenses can do, and defenses are currently a step behind.  When RGIII was "somewhat" healthy early in the playoff game last weekend, he and the Skins shredded the Seahawks 14-0.  As soon as RGIII lost his ability to run, Seattle clawed its way back in the game and took the lead for good.  Credit Wilson with part of that comeback, as his versatility is doing the same thing to opposing defenses.

Yesterday, we saw more of this mobile QB wreaking havoc, as Kaepernick turned the great Clay Matthews into jello.  When you see Matthews lost, looking for where the ball is while the player with it sails by him, you know this is not the same NFL as previous years.  I will use this theme to predict that Wilson and the Seahawks beat ATL today, and that the winner of the SEA-SF contest next weekend will beat the AFC in the Super Bowl.  Call it the RGIII-Wilson-Kaepernick mobile QB theme.  As long as you are healthy, the defenses do not yet have the answers.  It will be hard for SEA to win its second straight East Coast playoff game. But I will take the underdog that has the mobile QB and the solid defense. It is pretty crazy to take a rookie QB, and then to possibly call him to go all the way, but you have to break the mold in order to respect the power of change.

Side remarks

1) Shanahan was negligent in protecting his franchise QB from further injury.  This will be a huge help to the Gmen, because this is the second knee ligament tear for RGIII.  Given what we said above about SF and SEA, you still need to draft LBer to equip yourself with managing this new offensive dynamic.

1a) The way the Skins handled the news about RGIII's knee after the game and in subsequent days was typical PR denial of the reality and then the magnitude.  We are STILL LEARNING just how bad it is publicly.  For our part, read our tweet almost immediately after it happened.

2) All I could think about when Peyton got picked in OT yesterday was Tracy Porter's Q4 Manning pick vs the Saints in Super Bowl XLIV.  Peyton Manning is going to the Hall of Fame in a limousine on his first ballot, but he has "blinked" way too many times in the playoffs for my liking.

3) Follow me and Rich Conforti on Twitter during the playoffs.  We try to reply to tweets.  Another person we recommend following is Mike Pereira, who really helps with these play reviews.  I pretty much only use twitter for the NFL (outside of a few financial remarks), and it is a great way to keep up with the games. 

10 reasons why I will be rooting for the Washington Redskins this postseason.

1) RGIII is great for the game of football.

2) RGIII has humility and respect for himself, his opponents, and the game.

3) The Redskins make the NFC East tougher, and force the Giants to get better.

4) Maybe a successful Redskins teams forces the Giants to draft a LBer in Round 1 for the first time in 29 years.

5) Victor Cruz is rooting for the Redskins this postseason.

6) Of the Giants 3 opponents in the NFC East, I dislike the Skins the least.

7) In the NFC, I have no interest in rooting for Harbaugh, Rodgers or Carroll.  MIN and ATL are boring.

8) In the AFC, I won't root for the Cheater.  I never root for BAL (unless they play vs the Cheater).  I still do not believe Peyton should have come back. IND, HOU and CIN are boring.

9) Redskins fans have paid plenty for their owner's hopelessness.  We had a decade of darkness in the '70's. They had two decades.

10) Hey, they beat the Boys last week, it's the least we can do.

This is a review of the 2012 season.  Given that the Giants had played themselves out of serious contention for a playoff berth last week, it was nice to see the Giants put away the lowly Eagles (who lost 11 of their last 12 games).  There were a few takeaways from this game, but unfortunately the effort was too little too late.  Let's move on to larger topics (in no particular order)...

1) From a tweet from Ralph Vacchiano of the NY Daily News: The NY Giants under Tom Coughlin in the first halves of seasons: 53-19. Giants under Coughlin in second halves of seasons: 30-42."  This is not new news for the regulars of this NY Giants blog.  Glenn Warciski has written about this on more than a few occasions in the past, so we get tired of beating a dead horse.  When you are 0.736 (W/L percentage) in one half and 0.417 in the second half, there is something larger going on that needs to be fixed. It means there is plenty of talent, and then driving on fumes.  

2) 21st Century training techniques?  I really cannot speak about this subject with any expertise, but this blog has been critical of Conditioning coach Jerry Palmieri for a while.  The line from the link that jumps out for us is this: "None of the Broncos injuries to starters were (due to) muscle pulls." So we acknowledge that everyone has injuries this time of year, but the Giants seem to be suffering too many.  Amukamara hamstring.  Hosley quadricep.  Chris Canty never missed a single game as a Cowboy, but as a NY Giant he has suffered through hamstring and calf muscle injuries et al. 

3) One of the takeaways from today's game was the season of matriculation that has lifted WR Reuben Randle.  The rookie led the team with 4 catches for 58 yards and 2 TDs.  We are not going to be naive enough to think that Randle was ready to take on the X WR job of Nicks after the 1st stringer went down in Week 2 vs TB  But it was apparent that Nicks was simply not getting better as the season wore on and that his minutes were hurting the team.  Was this deja blue? The same thing happened with Brandon Jacobs a few years back when he was hurt in Week 1 and never got better.  We only found out after the season how Jacobs needed surgery.  I suspect that we will find out that Nicks was hurt more than they revealed.  It may be unfair and 20-20 hindsight, but rearview mirror or not, the Giants clearly got punished for the decision to push Nicks through and either give him more time or put him under the knife.  Nicks' best game after returning was NOT SO UNCOINCIDENTALLY the week after the bye, when he got 77 yards and 1 TD.  Nicks had 3 TDs all season.  Once again, we appreciate his effort, but this hurt the team.

4) On the subject of Randle, let's take a step back to the draft.  The Giants took a RB in R1 and a WR in R2.  The Giants always bring rookie RBs along slowly because they can't handle the blocking assignments which are needed to protect the QB in passing situations.  It was almost comical how Wilson was wanted by Gilbride on the field, yet quarantined on passing situations.  Hence he had a bullseye on his back in his limited snaps.  Opposing defenses keyed on him and his productivity suffered.  Back to Randle, as a WR, he was never going to properly learn all of the route tree decisions that were going to make Eli comfortable with throwing to him very much in his first season.  So both of these players collectively took a while in getting more meaningful opportunities to help.  They should both be much more significant contributors in 2013 and beyond.  But for 2012, as rookies, they were unable to make a difference to the offense when it mattered most.  Wilson, for his part, made a huge difference on Special teams.

5) Given the Giants string of successes at finding RB talent in Round 4 and later in the draft (imagine where Andre Brown would have been without the Achilles injury in his rookie camp?! ... and also think at how the Giants were able to get this castoff back and get a tremendous addition), why did the Giants ignore Offensive Line for the second consecutive year?  We were disappointed back in April that the Giants did not focus on LBer and OL early.  Both positions will need be targeted in 2013.  The Giants were/are BEHIND the curve.  For our part, we are not using the rearview mirror on this one, asking aloud for the past 3 years about the aging Offensive Line.  Diehl, O'Hara, Seubert, McKenzie, and Snee were all getting long in the tooth.  And this season, Diehl was hurt again while Snee too had to play through injuries.  (Diehl has been a tremendous overachiever for this franchise, a Fighting Illini who as a 5th Round Guard played a zillion more snaps than most, with many at the more difficult Tackle position.  I suspect he will not make the team next year, and if he does, that will not say a lot about the Giants OL.) 

The Giants' end result at 9-7 was not too far off from the up and down season of the OL.  In fact, when Sean Locklear went down, so went the Giants' fortunes.  We give Reese credit for signing a serviceable veteran like this to plug a hole, but it is the same indictment that we have for LBer.  These older veterans that plug holes are not the same as the blue chip talent that you draft and bring through at Age 22.

6) Last week, we commented with some stats on the Jerry Reese distribution of R1-R3 draft picks taken from 2007-2012:

WR 6
DL  4
CB  4
S     2
OL, RB, TE, LB 1

So out of 20 picks, the Giants have taken a whopping total of 2 LBers and OL COMBINED!  Restating our comment, "33% of your starters have gotten 10% of the (coveted) resources. And it has reared its ugly head in the past two games (vs ATL and BAL)."  It is a passing league, but you still have to keep your QB upright and give the team a chance at converting three 4th down and shorts.

7) Mr. Medium.  9-7.  For the Giants, middle-dom means missing the playoffs AND a high teens draft pick. Like kissing your sister.  It's the NFL's true version of the booby prize.

8) I really hope they bring back Martellus Bennett.  He was not a vg blocker, and he sometimes ran lazy routes.  But he is a force to be reckoned with in the passing game, and will have Ginormous upside in the passing game in 2013+.  He likes it here in NY, he has developed a rapport with Eli, and he said NY will get the home discount.  Yep, he said he will play here for less than others who choose to bid on his services. That immediately hurt his own auction by disclosing that publicly, but I think that shows where his heart is.

9) Someone please tell me if Justin Tuck has peaked or not.  He seemed to play a lot better vs PHL after not dressing last week.  The Giants will surely bring him back for the last year in his contract, but I just want to know if he can last 16 games in a season.  For the team's sake, we sure hope so. 

10) I hate the Eagles.  They get a better draft pick at 4-12 than 5-11, but I enjoyed seeing the Gmen wipe the floor with the dream team.

11) I believe in Eli.  He will be a huge part of the franchise's next title run.  I will go on record as saying that barring a bad injury which hampers the rest of his career, that he has another NY Giants Super Bowl in him. 

12) Watching the playoffs the next few weeks will be another reminder of what borscht the NFL is.  Every year is an opportunity to win the Super Bowl.  It's practically a lottery.  For the Giants part, they need LBers to handle the RGIII option run.  They need a new OL.  If the DBs can stay healthy, they are fine there.  You can rest assured that Reese will draft yet another DLman.  

13) One former writer for this blog opines that Peter Giunta, the Secondary Coach, will be the fall guy for this season.  Fewell replied earlier in the week that the players were put in position to make plays and did not make the plays.  It is never a good situation when a coach points the blame at his players publicly.  Privately in meetings, you can show all of your players where they bleeped up.  But do not enable the media.  I am concerned about a rift.

14) The Mayor remarked that the season's difficulties fall squarely on Gilbride and the offense.  Agreed.  We could cite all kinds of anecdotal evidence, but in the postgame wrapup, Bob Popa came to the same conclusion.  He (and Banks) noted how, vs Atlanta, the score was 17-0 at the half, but 10 of the 17 points were handed to the Falcons on turnovers.  And the goose egg was caused by continuous failures to convert 4th downs.  But here is another interesting stat from ESPN: the Giants were 9-0 when they scored more than 20 points.  They were 0-7 when they scored 20 or less.  The defense had its issues this year, but when you look back at the 7 losses, it is more a story of the offense underachieving.  Popa noted 3 games in particular- the failed drive vs PHL in Week 4.  The blown opportunities to convert points vs PIT.  And settling for FGs vs Washington in a 17-16 loss.

We have a lot of things to do here at UltimateNYG in the offseason.  We will look at the 2013 draft.  We will break down our All 22 film data for additional  conclusions.  And we will also review the 2010 Draft to see how the analysts performed.  Thanks for staying with us in 2012.  Happy New Year and may you all have a healthy 2013.

Linebacker

-Steve Hardin

Week 16 LB grade sheet

...after a blowout loss in a game with implications such as this one, the grades may end up being a little harsher than normal. DO NOT take this to mean that this was not by FAR the worst outing of the season, because it certainly was. The Giants came in controlling our own destiny and needed guys to step up and make plays, and in every aspect of the game they came up short.

...the Ravens faced one 3rd and long the entire half and converted.  Not going to get us off the field.

...from a personnel standpoint we saw a lot of four LB groupings with Williams, Blackburn, Herzlich, and Paysinger, which we have not seen a lot of. I think this game showed exactly why we haven't seen much of it:

...Herzlich is not a starting NFL linebacker. In previous film evaluations, I made the point that he is always in the right place and needed to finish some plays to take his game the next level. The more I watch of him the more I believe it is not a developmental thing for him to begin making these plays, but simply that he is not capable. On three different occasions in the first half he tried to run windows to make a big TFL and either missed a tackle or came up just short each time. It was difficult to tell on the first two if he hesitated a little bit or if he is simply just not athletic enough to get there. In the third instance he clearly did not commit to a fast downhill run.  If he cannot get there that is fine, but he needs to realize this and play more over the top rather than trying to make impact plays. When he does this but cannot get there, he is just taking a linebacker out of the play in most cases

...we cut the film off after the first half  and they did finish the game with 4 and 3 tackles respectively, but Williams and Paysinger are simply not showing up enough. I am tired of giving out decent grades on the grade sheet for being in the right place or doing your job. Linebackers need to be playmakers (Rich: This is something Andy has warned all season long and even in the past as Giants have been successful on their runs---you NEED playmaking LBs in the NFL, especially now with the influx of talented "fleet of foot" quarterbacks) on the defense, and when a game goes as this one did, they need to lead by example.  Just not good enough.

...the Rice touchdown on Baltimore's final drive of the half is 100% on Boley. Boley is man on Rice here.  Granted, not an easy task but his technique is what gets him beat for six. He needs to play this inside out, meaning he should be inside of Rice denying entry to the middle of the field. It is much easier to react if Rice turns this into a slide or wheel route, but Boley gets beat on the Texas route which turns into a 30-yard touch. Can't happen.

...the effort in the last few weeks has been awful. There were two big plays in the second quarter by Boldin and Smith that should have gone for small gains.Boley and Blackburn were both culprits. Big yards after the catch happen when guys assume that someone else is going to make a play.

OVERALL COMBINED GRADE (26 PLAYS): "-13"

INDIVIDUAL GRADES: 

BLACKBURN: -5

HERZLICH: -2

J. WILLIAMS: -1

PAYSINGER: -2

BOLEY: - 4

RIVERS: 1