What does it take to win an NFL Championship? Less regular season wins than it used to.  All of the readers of this NY Giants blog are fans of the NFL, professional football, and mostly the NY Giants.  We examine and critique the team because we keep score with titles. 

Four.

That is how many titles the NY Giants franchise has.  They are all equal.  They are all prized.  How do we get more of them?  

It is important to understand where the league is today, and what is necessary for a title.  The chart below tracks the number of regular season wins of the Super Bowl winner since 1985.  

What is meaningful here is the trend that has taken place over the last number of years.  

By looking at the last 28 years in 4 separate 7 year snapshots, we see that there has been a shift in what it takes to win a title. In the past ('85-'98), winning your conference in the regular season was a pretty reliable indicator of success in the playoffs, as that implied a ~71% chance of winning the holy grail.  In contrast, in the last 14 years, only 21% of Regular Season #1 Seeds have gone on to win the title.

This is the NFL today.  If you love the fact that a wildcard round team without a bye has as much a shot at the title as your bye team, then this is a welcome change.  The NY Giants are the poster child for how to succeed in each period.  They had a bye and an average record of 13.5 wins in their first 2 titles.  They were wildcard round (non-bye) winners of two more titles the past 6 years with an average record of 9.5 wins.

What does all this mean? This data is simple proof that all you need to do is get into the playoffs to have a legitimate shot at winning the title. There once was a time when a 10 win or 11 win team winning the title was the exception to the rule.  Today, the AVERAGE team has less than 11 wins.  Does this make the playoffs more interesting or entertaining? Yes. Unfortunately for this NY Giants blogger, I do prefer a regular season that has more meaning.  Today, if you are one of 37.5% of teams (12 out of 32) that make it to the playoffs, that is all you need to win it all.  Get into the playoffs and get hot.  

What is behind the trend?  For us, it is all about Free Agency.  Teams lose their stars (and leaders) to other teams.  Instead of teams clicking after 3 or 4 years of continuity, they click in 3 or 4 games.  We know we'll get an argument when we say that it is the lack of continuity created by the turnstile of free agency that makes the champion weaker.  This is the "slop" we refer to.  Our simple contention is that there is a huge difference between a 13-3 team and an 11-5 team.  The Ravens were beaten six times this season.  The Giants were beaten seven times last season.  Look, Aaron Rodgers can take his 15-1 regular season (2011) and stick it where the sun don't shine.  You have to perform in the playoffs, so it is TFB that the Pack and Rodgers lost a game to the Gmen that they were woefully unprepared for.  It is just the nature of the league and where it is today. Teams with marginal regular seasons are going all the way to titles.  Hey, the Ravens beat the Broncos and the Patriots.  It says as much about the fiction of those seeded teams as anything else. 

There are many who like this democracy.  And they have a huge point which supports their argument: the bye.  I may not like it that the regular season means less than it should, but I can't blame the NFL here.  The bye is a beautiful device that creates a tiered structure for enabling teams that play better during the regular season to have a huge advantage in the playoffs.  They have to play one less elimination game to get a title.  In this sense, when these "great" regular season teams lose, there is no one to blame but themselves. Why do they seem to fold? We never bought the stock of Atlanta, who frankly should have gotten beaten by the Seahawks, if not for the Carrolls spotting them an entire half of football and then not closing the door with 30 seconds left.  Yet Atlanta was the #1 seed.  They had the dome, the homefield, the 17-0 lead in the Conference Championship.  Perhaps it is as much about the regular season mirage as anything else.

The crazy thing about the bye is that it seems that these second tier teams that are clicking at the right time need to play "through" to get better.  In 2007, a marginal Giants team that was 10-5 played the 15-0 Patriots in the final game of the regular season.  The key to the entire season was the Giants playing through, fighting to a 38-35 loss.  The Giants got confidence in a loss.  And after a win vs TB in the wildcard round, they had the confidence in themselves to beat the #1 seed Cowboys.  If Free Agency rips you apart, then you need every single opportunity, every single game, every EXTRA playoff game to get better and build your team.  I may not like the fact that the Regular Season means less, but you cannot blame the NFL for having a structure that allows the best regular season teams to win one less game.  The lesson that the numbers are telling us is that in the era of free agency, playing an extra playoff game means improving the level of play necessary to win a title.      

On the same day the Ravens were celebration their SB47 victory with a parade through the Inner Harbor of Baltimore, the Giants began their journey to capture another with news of the release of Michael Boley. The "chopping" didn't end there as Wednesday afternoon brought us the end of the Giants' careers of Ahmad Bradshaw and Chris Canty.

If you were to take a look at the snap counts and quotes from Boley (who claimed he was relatively health) in the last quarter of the season, this move shouldn't come as much of a surprise. The OLB had grown a bit disgrunteled and the Giants appeared ready to move on from Boley as he lost a considerable amount of playing time. During the Giants SB46 run, Boley played an integral role in quarterbacking the Giants defense (the Giants struggled through a month stretch in November without him) and making some key plays that will live on in the lure of the run. Most memorable for me will be his acrobatic 4th and 1 stop against the Falcons in the WC round (after making a similar stop against Tony Romo in Week 17's divisional title matchup) when he came over the top of the LOS to grab hold of Matt Ryan and wrestle him down to the ground. This year, he is a cap casualty. So goes life in the NFL. 

After saving about $4.5 million against the cap with the move, the Giants are looking at a depth chart featuring J. Williams, Rivers (a UFA who I imagine will be resigned on the cheap) and Paysinger, all of whom will get an opportunity to earn the spot that Boley filled for four seasons. Personally I am a fan of what Williams brings to the table athletically but like Rivers he spent much of the 2012 season dealing with injuries. Paysinger showed minor flashes this season (the SF game comes to mind for me) but doesn't seem ready for a starting role. 

Chris Canty, as we know, dealt with his fair share of injuries for the Giants and a week 16 MCL strain may have been the straw that broke the camel's back. On the wrong side of 30, Canty's cap number of $6.25 million and a potential second knee surgery in just over a year made him a luxury that the Giants could not afford within the projected salary cap looming.

The move leaves the Giants extremely thin at defensive tackle with only Linval Joseph and Marcus Kuhn (2012 7th round pick) currenty on the roster. While I'm sure the Giants aren't completely ready to give up on Marvin Austin, 2013 will in all likelihood be his last chance to drop the bust reputation that he has earned in his short tenure with the team. Kuhn, it seems, has outplayed expectations in the eyes of the organization while Austin has done just the opposite. 

While some moves at both LB and DT will certainly be made whether it be via the draft or free agency, let's hold off on speculating names until we get a bit deeper into the offseason. A draft assessment from Wonder, a better feel for the exact cap number and a look at the free agents who hit the market in March will give us a better idea of who the Giants may be locking in on.

“Pound for pound, Bradshaw is one of the toughest football players that I’ve been around,” general manager Jerry Reese said. “Ahmad played football like Giants football should be played.”

High praise from someone who tells it like it is and doesn't offer praise just for the sake of it.

Losing Bradshaw is a bigger hit to the Giants than any Ultimate22 grade could quantify. The former 7th round compensation selection has the reverence and respect from every single man in the organization. I generally am one to scoff at making assumptions about things like locker room presences and team chemistry but consider Bradshaw a rare execption. All you need to do is pull up any article about Bradshaw this morning (or from any point in his career for that matter) and read the things that his teammates and coaches have to say about their teammate. 

Unlike DT and LB it's pretty clear who will step in for the Giants at RB and the future certainly does look promising. Andre Brown  proved last year that he may be the best pure "runner" on the Giants, showing great pace and vision as he always found a way to gain yards. David Wilson's late season success is still fresh in all of our minds and certainly had Reese giddy as he spoke in postseason interviews about the big play threat the Giants slowly unleashed.

The future is bright here.....AS LONG AS someone can pick up the slack for Bradshaw in pass protection. The 5'10'' Bradshaw was an exceptional pass blocker and wasn't afraid to use his leverage to deliver a blow to a blitzing LB who towered over him. More often than not, this was a battle that Bradshaw won. And as we saw down the stretch in 2012 this is somewhere he will be sorely missed. Pass protection will be something to watch for the RBs in 2013 and will be a good way to determine whether or not the $2.75 million saved on 44 was worth it.

Bradshaw himself acknolwedged he and the Giants discussed the possibility of a return but I find it unlikely. There is going to be a team who will be able to offer a bit more than the Giants. With the depth they have at the position, it just doesn't make sense for them to offer any sizable deal to him.

Just short of 27 years old, Bradshaw's running style caused the injuries to pile up, particularly in his feet. Former longtime Giants beat writer Vinny DiTrani said it best:

Bradshaw's tough, piston-like running style took toll on sides of his feet. One of toughest guys I've seen in 40-plus years.

— VinnyDiTrani (@sageman01) February 6, 2013

As Bradshaw got older he began to spend more time dealing with injuries (and he certainly did deal with them) and most recently had another surgery to replace screws in his right foot. As we learned over his six years with the Giants, there were few injuries that were going to hold 44 down. Coach Coughlin touched on this yesterday:

“Bradshaw has great toughness,” Coughlin said. “He plays through anything. He doesn’t just talk about playing hurt. He does play hurt. If anyone knows the quality of this man’s pain threshold, all you need to do is watch him on a Monday when he can’t even walk. He gets a little better on Tuesday, a little better on Wednesday. By Thursday his spirits are back up and whether he can or he can’t, he’s telling you he’s practicing on Friday, and he does. And he plays on Sunday. And he goes through the same cycle. He did that for two or three years.”

Last point on Bradshaw: two plays, both from the SB42 run, really stick with me as a fan. The first is his breakout play---his 88-yard touchdown run in Week 16 @ Buffalo to more or less put the Giants in the tournament. I will forever hear Bob Papa scream "AND AHMAD BRADSHAW HAS RUN THE GIANTS INTO THE PLAYOFFS" whenever the thought of 44 arises.

The second one, as coach Coughlin explained, may be a bit less memorable to Giants fans:

“(The second-quarter) play is going to be one of the least-talked about plays in his much-talked about and revered years here as a New York Giant. It could be the biggest play in the Super Bowl XLII win. This guy goes down in a pile and takes the ball away from a Patriot player who has it in his hands. It was an incredible play. The guy has the ball and Bradshaw goes down and gets the ball and it’s our ball. Rather than losing the ball to Tom Brady and that high-scoring offensive team, he saves the day with that play. Just an incredible football play.” 

While all three players were integral parts to bringing a championship to the Giants (x2 for Bradshaw), there is no denying the loss of Bradshaw cuts deepest for both fans and the organization alike. He was the kind of guy that was easy to root for- a seventh round pick who early on earned the trust of the Giants' coaches and never lost it. Here's to hoping all three find success wherever they continue their careers. 

As the changes to continue to come for the Giants just remember the words of the legendary coach Bill Walsh who said that it is better to cut ties with a player a year early than a year late. 

For starters, we need to react to the writers who denied Strahan's entrance into the Hall of Fame.  Of course there was always the "chance" that he would not get in on his first ballot.  And of course, #92 will get in.  But that does not pardon the error of denying his swift entrance into the Hall.  Let's list the reasons why Strahan is a first ballot Hall of Famer:

1) Tremendous pass rusher
2) Tremendous run stopper, arguably as good if not better vs the run than the pass
3) Tremendous at maintaining pocket integrity on his pass rush
4) Tremendous team leader and Super Bowl Champion
5) Consistent, Righteous Ambassador of the Game

Maybe some of the writers didn't like it when he called them out for selling newspapers at the expense of the truth and team unity. Strahan was simply a complete player in every respect, top to bottom, in all areas of the game, on and off the field.  It is a cosmic joke that Warren Sapp is in before Strahan.  It is a cosmic joke that a Guard, Larry Allen, is in ahead of Strahan.  A Guard? A f*****g Guard?!!! Guys like Allen, Sapp, and Ogden are all Hall-worthy.  And Cris Carter has gotten in after many attempts, so that is cool.  But none of these players did it as consistently and as completely as Strahan.  In his final year, 2007, they still RAN AWAY from Stray to Osi's side.  Case closed.

Back to the Super Bowl.

Many Giants fans have been struck how the 4 teams that made it to the Conference Championships last year all made it back, except the Gmen.  Both Harbaugh teams lost last year, so maybe it was the hunger that finally put both teams over the top and into the Super Bowl a year later.  It is a long season when you go to the Super Bowl.  You are playing in February, and there are OTAs only weeks later.  The winner gets feted in all kinds of ways with a myriad number of appearances in the media.  Let's see if the Giants can retool and use the extra time of not being in the playoffs as a way to recharge for XLVIII.

A number of weeks back, as the playoffs were starting, this NY Giants blogger said he'd be rooting for RGIII.  After he got his knee turned into a pretzel, we stayed on the theme of the read option QB, believing that Wilson or Kaepernick would be our pick for winning the title.  In this light, it is obvious that our pick remains Kaepernick to take the favored 49ers to their 6th title.  I will be rooting for a good game, but would not make any gambling prognostication, because Kaepernick is still essentially a rookie QB in his second year in the NFL.  He plays with a great deal of poise which belie his inexperience.  Two Aprils ago, our draft analysts, Wonder and Pete, both touted Kaepernick as one of their 5 "green" undervalued players in the draft.  We heard this week how Jim Harbaugh had rated Kaepernick as the single best player in the entire draft, jumping up 9 spots to take him at 34 in the draft. 

As Kaepernick goes, so go the fortunes of the 49ers.  In Week 6, the Giants went out west and manhandled the 49ers, led by Alex Smith.  What a difference a QB makes.  Both teams' paths went in opposite directions after that loss.  With the exception of Seattle crushing SF near the end of the season, the 49ers have been playing very good football.  They have a solid OL.  Vernon Davis is a tremendous TE who, along with Jimmy Graham, should probably be banned for being un fair to the rest of the league.  Mario Manningham is gone with an ACL tear, or the Niners would have an even better passing game than they have.  Crabtree is a competent WR who has not yet delivered on his early first round pedigree, but that can all change with one or two key plays this evening.  At RB, we actually like the changeup Kendall Hunter more than the meat and potatoes pounding of Gore.  Gore runs so hard that, at 29, he is no longer the game breaker he once was.  While we can expect Gore to get the rock to keep the Ravens defense honest, I look for guys like Hunter and Kaepernick to light up the highlight reel more.  Watch also for another TE favorite, Delanie Walker. 

On defense, the 49ers LBers are always the lead story, but we have to watch the pass rushing of Aldon Smith to see if Joe Flacco will be able to get his patented bombs off before getting hurried/knocked down/sacked.  The 49ers Secondary is vulnerable if the pass rush is not there.  

For the Ravens, on offense, it is all about balance and chess.  This team understands the value of small ball.  Sure, Flacco loves to air it out, but just as quickly they will throw underneath to Ray Rice. Next to Darren Sproles, Ray Rice was #2 in the league in pass receptions for a RB.  I love that stat in today's passing NFL, where you must get your RB out in space. Rice will have a much harder time vs the solid LBers of SF, but you have to stretch that defense in every way possible, so stretch them w small ball.  Add Pitta and Dickson at TE and you have plenty for the Ravens to do.  We did not even mention Boldin and Smith, who do so many things at WR.  The key for the Ravens offense is NOT to get bogged down- they cannot go for stretches where they disappear.  This means making sure that Rice gets the ball underneath for 7 yards and that Pitta gets the sticks moved on 3rd down.  If the 49ers play two deep safeties vs Flacco, then go underneath.

The Ravens defense unfortunately will get compared to the 2000 defense, and that is not fair.  The story here is how guys like Suggs came back to play after early pre/season injuries. The extra two weeks off will be a godsend for older defensive veterans like Suggs (30), Lewis (37), Reed (34) and Kemeeatu (33).   Ed Reed plays centerfield, and it will be great to see how he does vs Kaepernick.  There are so many solid defensive players on this team like Ellerbe, Kruger and Graham.  They bend, but they don't break. 

In the final analysis of this game, I believe the 49er defense will give the Ravens offense just enough trouble to disrupt them and throw them out of rhythm.  This is why I cannot emphasize enough how important small ball will be for the Ravens offense in maintaining rhythm vs the 49ers.  Those TEs and RBs and short slants may not seem as glamourous as the Flacco bomb, but they keep you on the field for the Flacco bomb.  As fans of the NFL, we are looking forward to a competitive game which we hope goes down to the wire. See you on Twitter.       

Today Michael Strahan will get voted into the Pro Football Hall of Fame.  This will come as no surprise to the regular readers of this NY Giants blog.  Almost 5 years ago, before Strahan officially announced his retirement, we wrote about this future event:

IN PRAISE OF THE BEST NEW YORK GIANTS DEFENSIVE END OF ALL TIME- MICHAEL STRAHAN

I reread the post and savored the memories of Strahan in blue (and white and red for XLVI).  Man Crush? Absolutely.  But in my defense, I think I may only be the 2nd best booster of #92 in this household, as my wife probably likes Stray even more than me!  10 years ago at the First Annual Draft Day Party (do they still do those?) at Giants Stadium, my girls gleefully reported to their mother that Strahan's locker was Super Messy.  I think that sealed it for Gap Tooth.  

All joking aside about the locker, I am continually amazed about the shallow discussion of Strahan's football career.  The sacks were the tip of the iceberg.  It was all about the COMPLETE player on every single defensive snap, pass OR run. If I had to rewrite that ode to the Giants legend, I would layer in one more point alluded to in the reference to Jeff Garcia.  You see, there are sack artists and there are football players.  As good a football player and as vital a component as Osi Umenyiora has been to XLII and XLVI, he is literally an entire level below Strahan.  Strahan maintained pocket integrity whenever he went at the QB.  My memory of his pass rush mechanics does not go back to the very beginning of his career, but once he was established, I cannot recall Strahan selfishly going south and allowing the QB to saunter out of the pocket for easy pickings.  He contained Garcia beautifully on that pass rush and he did it that way every time he went to the QB.  The genius of Strahan was how he forced Garcia to pass in it in the first place, being ever so careful to prevent the nimble QB from even THINKING about running out of the pocket. 

Today's game has the read option with Russell Wilson, Colin Kaepernick, Cam Newton, RGIII....  this means pocket contain pass rushing, where your lane is protected, is more vital than ever.  How do you think Strahan's skills would have fared in the latest wrinkle of the NFL?!   He'd stomp you out.

A toast, NFL fans everywhere, to the best NY Giants Defensive End of All Time and Hall of Famer #92, Michael Strahan.   

Even if you don't fancy yourself a "betting man (or woman)" odds are you may have peeked at some Super Bowl prop bets in the last few days. The options range from choices like, "who will score the game's last TD" to "will Lebron James score more points on Sunday than the 49ers." Add these to your traditional wagering options (point spread, over/under) and the possibilities for betting are endless. It's a great way to take a break from the constant cycle of the daily Ray Lewis coverage followed by the "Ray Lewis gets too much coverage" coverage. 

Note: All spreads and totals are taken from sportsbetting.ag

Favorite Prop Bets

Who will have more rushing yards-- Bernard Pierce -115 (-5.5 yards) vs LaMichael James (-115)

Bernard Pierce (TOP PICK)

This one is simple: James is the 3rd rushing option for the 49ers, while Pierce serves as the 2nd for the Ravens. James has gotten 8 carries in this year's playoffs for just 55 yards while Pierce has totaled 27 for 169 yards. Pierce locks this one up fairly easily as his role in the Baltimore backfield has become fairly large. Just to be clear, as long as Pierce rushes for 6 more yards than James, you're a winner. This is my top play for SB47.

Total Tackles (solo+assist):

Ray Lewis OVER 11.5  (TOP PICK)

Whether or not you still think he is a top-flight linebacker, there is no denying that Lewis still picks up tackles in bunches. Yes he makes his fair share of solo stops but no one is better at finding a gang tackle or a ball carrier who is on his way down. It also helps that the official scorer tends to be very generous in awarding tackles (the league's least respected stat in my opinion), especially when it comes to Lewis. Can't imagine him not exceeding this total in his 249th and final career game.

First Kickoff is a Touchback

Yes (-170) (TOP PICK)

Yes you are nearly forced to lay 2-to-1 odds, but don't let that deter you. Both Akers and Tucker have very strong legs. Tucker had plenty of touchbacks this season including going 8-for-16 in this year's playoffs (not bad considering the games were played in Baltimore, Denver and New England) and was 3-4 in only indoor game this year (@ Houston) . And while Akers has been a disaster this season in terms of hitting field goals, he too went 5-for-5 on touchbacks in his most recent domed game---the NFC title game win over Atlanta.  

Player to score game's first touchdown:

Anquan Boldin (+1000)

Ed Dickson (+4475)

Randy Moss (+1950)

Delanie Walker (+2500)

Outside of Boldin, these are probably not the guys that you'd expect to score the game's first TD. With longer odds than some of the more notable options (Kaepernick, Rice, V. Davis) these choices offer a good return on whatever you put in. Both Moss and Walker are solid red zone options for SF and the same goes for Boldin and to an extent, Dickson. As the Ravens 2nd TE, you would be pinning your wager on the hope that Flacco finds a wide open Dickson off of a goal line PA pass. The long odds make it worth a look.