The amount of data crunching has been very large.  We have not completed and compiled all of the grades from all of the positions yet.

While we are awaiting all of the returns from our staff, we coded every single play for many characteristics.  As an example, we tracked different types of pass plays, and slants jumped out at us for their success quantitatively- these small ball plays made a large contribution to Romo's success.  Dallas was 5 for 6 on slants, for 58 yards.  In an age where the NFL is about passing, the slant can move the team down the field.  It also tires and frustrates pass rushers because they cannot key off of 5 and 7 step drops.

Early preliminary work by the grader of the Defensive Ends uncovered some trends which we will tie into the numbers this week...

Boley Pic: Giants rush 4. Kiwi rushes from Rt DE spot. JPP and Tuck in the middle and Osi outside. JPP and Tuck get great push up the middle and Romo, because Kiwi kept his lane integrity, he had to step left to throw.

TD #1: Tuck does a stunt from left to right leaving NO ONE to Romo's right.  Not sure if one of the DTs was suppose to stunt also. JPP has great pass rush from RT DE spot and flushes Romo to his right with no one there to stop him.

TD #2: Osi from the LT DE spot (Tuck's usual spot) has great pass rush but Romo eludes him (not Osi's fault, the other guys are great athletes also) Romo steps to his right and throws TD pass

TD #3: Romo has great pocket to throw from. He gets stupid lucky on a ball that should have been picked. WR can adjust to the ball because he is looking back.

3rd Down throw to end game on 3 and 12: Quick release pass from nice pocket for Romo. Justin Tuck drops back and is in coverage down field. Romo throws right into the blitz on the LB for an easy 12 yard pickup. 

Some early data on Romo scrambling out of the pocket: he left the pocket 7 times, going 4 for 6 for 72 yards and 2 TDS on those passes and had 1 scramble for 9 yards and a first first down in the red zone. 

Conclusion: Keep Romo in the pocket and unless he makes a great play or gets lucky you have a great shot at winning the game. Only time he makes great throw is on the last 3rd down of the game. Unless he got lucky and that was his first read he threw right into the area vacated by the LB on his blitz. Why with the game on the line Tuck is not one of the 4 rushing the QB we do not know. Would seem it is more coaching for this loss than the players. On 2 of the 4 biggest plays of the game bad playing calling might have been the cause. We say might because on the first TD we don't know if the Tuck stunt was called and if it was did, the DT not do his job.

The 'All 22' review of games, also known as Ultimate22, was given an introduction yesterday on The NY Times Fifth Down Football Blog.  The limitations of making a grade within a single play and the macro statistical advantage of evaluating large numbers of plays were discussed in the comments section at greater length. 

Here is the Reader's Digest summary of these considerations:

(1) Get over the idea that any single play is always going to get a perfect evaluation.  The only way that is possible is if we ourselves are the coaches and know precisely what was drawn up and intended for execution.  And if you want to have another laugh, just know that Lawrence Taylor went rogue on Rod Rust and had Steve DeOssie make a pre-1991 defensive call out of frustration with the 'read and react,' so nothing in this world is 100%, not even the coaches.

2) Appreciate the value of large numbers to get a respectable report on the contributions of individual players overall.  Would you rather get a snapshot of 5 plays from an Offensive Lineman or 55?  When you have 55 plays to observe contributions, the body of work is much more representative of the evening's game and that player.  We never said that we'd be able to get all 55 perfect.  But we do believe that our conclusions overall will be solid and meaningful.

Here is a question for the entire viewership to think about.  What percentage of the time does a player fail to execute his assignment, ie a lineman is told to block Player A and blocks the wrong guy?  How often does that happen?  Well, let's think about the issue from a different perspective...  In the 11 person choreographed ballet, which is also known as a single football play, we know that everyone is counted on to do their job or else the play may necessarily fail. So how often do all 11 players on any play ALL do their job?  Is it 10% of the time? Is it 50% of the time?  Is it 90% of the time? 

Below is a table which has the % chance that a single player will do his job on a given play, and the % chance of all 11 players do their job, assuming each player has the same ability.

What percent of the time are all 11 players doing their job on a single play?  The reason why this table was put together was to show you that we would be watching horrible ugly football if only 30% of the time all 11 players were doing their job.  It would be the Keystone Cops.  Using this analysis, we would believe that all 11 players are doing their job on any given play roughly 50% to 90% of the time.  And that implies that any single player is doing his job about 95% to 99% of the time.  This makes sense.  So if there are 60 snaps for a player, this means that we would expect him to be executing his assignment properly on about 57 to 59 of those 60 snaps. (Note: we are not saying they will do their jobs well on 58 snaps, just that they will do what they are supposed to be doing, ie blocking the right guy.)  As professionals, this makes sense again.  We are humans.  We make some mistakes, but hopefully not too often.  We try to limit them by practicing them again and again so that we reduce their occurrence. 

Summary- Assuming players execute their proper assignment ~95% to 99% of the time, that is good enough for us to make informed evaluations over large groups of observations.

This weekend and early next week we will be reporting on how the players did individually and as a group vs Dallas.  The All 22 video feeds only became available late last evening, so it will take a couple of days for the staff to go through all the plays. 

We are expecting some surprises. It is impossible for the human eye to watch more than a few things on a single play, let alone the details of 11 independent things.  Let's see what the results are.

In the past we would provide a detailed recap of the game.  The effort to provide Ultimate22, a comprehensive and objective recap of player performance, seeks to replace the coverage in large part.  Still, there are MACRO THEMES that need to be summarized here.  This recap is not trying to catch ALL the points.  Please add more in the comments that I did not mention here.

1) The latest CBA signed a little over a year ago continues to water down the quality of the NFL.  To see grown men, athletes in the prime of health, AT NIGHT WITHOUT LATE SUMMER HEAT, gassed in the second half... it is what you get at the beginning of the season in the NFL in 2012.  Sad but true. The Giants defensive performance eroded as the night wore on.  Was part of this the injuries at CB? Yes.  But the pass rush dwindled due to fatigue, and we hope the data will bear that out.  This is the kind of information that can quantitatively assist us and put some meat on those bones, supporting what we qualitatively witnessed.

2) How many times have we laid out the blueprint here on this NY Giants blog of how to gameplan Tony Romo?  The edge rushers need to be particularly mindful of pocket contain, because the entire world knows that Romo is much better OUT OF THE POCKET, on the run, than inside the pocket. Pressure up the middle makes it harder for him to see the field, and that (in part) led to his lone INT vs Boley.

3) We said yesterday that the replacement refs would change the dynamic.  They called much less offensive holding.  I believe that Offensive Line holding was called much less, as compared to WR/TE holds etc.. One person at the game reported that members of the Giants DL were getting mugged out there with no calls. We saw a few.  Did you notice the mock cheers for the refs late in the game when holding was finally called against Dallas?!  The Ultimate22 will hopefully catch more of this.  It is what it is, as this by itself was not the reason why the Giants lost. It didn't help, but you better not blame the refs for the loss. (And yes, the Cruz hold at the goal line was nasty, but this is what we talked about yday with the 25% variable of luck.)

4) The Giants beat themselves, as usual.  The Wilson fumble, 3 Victor Cruz drops, 2 penalties on Cruz, 1 or 2 Bennett transgressions (not diving for a makeable catch is a big pet peeve of mine), Kiwi and Tuck not making a critical tackle, many CB mistakes, fill in your favorite here. 

5) Everyone loves the overachieving Chase Blackburn, including me.  But the time has come to put this guy back on the couch.  He is a liability out there.  Who would you rather have on Ogletree in the red zone in a zone passing scheme, Blackburn or Williams?!

6) DISGUISE YOUR BLITZES.  This is poker, fellas.  Romo would get a read on blitz and then adjust.  The way to foil this and get him off his "tell" is to do what the Giants did last season vs Brady in the regular season win vs the Patriots- you show a blitz and then drop out of it ON OCCASION.  This makes it harder for the QB and the protections to know ANYTHING about what is truly coming.  It worked tremendously against NE and its absence vs Dallas was a killer.

7) It's Groundhog Day.  Must be another complaint about Gilbride not using enough small ball.  When the Giants began using it, they rattled off an 89 yard drive.  Long pass plays to Hixon happen because they are set up by dinks and dunks.  If this was used a great deal more in the first half, the Giants would not have had to struggle offensively nearly as much...

8) Because the running game is horrid. The short yardage running game is even worse.  Success came a little more in H2 because the Giants passed the ball, used more small ball passing AND THEN ran it selectively with draws and outside stuff which kept the Cowboys a little more off balance.  But on 1st and 10 between the tackles? Ugh.  Once again, these are things that we look forward to tracking with Ultimate22.  The data will be accumulated in coming days.

9) There are many positives.  The Defensive Line, the Linebackers, the short yardage stops, TE contributions... if this were a lengthier recap we would highlight more of the good (and the bad), but suffice it to say that the Giants have more than enough to be very competitive this season.  Coughlin is good at pointing out mistakes and giving players the opportunity to play better. THE DL WON'T GET GASSED and the team will be able to improve from this.  It wouldn't "hurt" to get healthier at DL and CB, not to mention OL etc..

10) I really like Keith Rivers. Yes, he whiffed on Romo, but he covers ground like Giants LBers haven't covered ground in MANY YEARS.  Refreshing.

11) Wilson's fumble is one reason why I don't like drafting RBs high. You can't get these guys enough playing time early on.  (The coaches were 100% correct to bench him after the fumble.)  The Giants have done a fabulous job over the years of drafting late and finding undrafted RBs that are fine.  It is a passing league.  The best thing about Wilson should be for small ball underneath IN THE PASSING game.

12) Nicks looked like a decoy out there. He will get back to 100% and will help the team out much more than he did last night.

13) David Diehl needs to get moved back to Guard.  Unfortunately this is what happens when you don't have enough Offensive Tackles.  Who warned about the problems on the Offensive Line?

14) I am sure I left out stuff.  Please feel free to add more.

Some opening day thoughts at the start of the 2012 season...

1) "I am a Jedi, like my father before me."  Yes, the Force runs strong in Eli's family. Eli can sense pass rushers that he cannot even see.  He has mastery of his weapons, including Cruz and Nicks.  Add Bradshaw, Wilson and a healthy TE, and Eli can be lethal. 

2) "Fear is the path to the Dark Side."  And the only fear this Giants fan has is the Giants Offensive Line.  These guys barely held it together in the playoffs vs San Fran.  This year starts with Locklear at LT.  He's serviceable, but he'll need help (chips, etc.) vs Ware et al in pass protection.

3) "Great kid, don't get cocky." We on this not so humble NY Giants blog have been concerned about the dearth at Linebacker for many a moon. This season brings optimism in Kiwi with a little more experience, Rivers with a fresh start in the swamp, and second year players like Herzlich and Williams getting some experience.  Boley finally has some help.  But please don't bring in Blackburn on passing downs unless there is a TE (or RB) with only one functional leg.

4) "Luke, you can destroy the emperor, he has foreseen this."  It's a toss up between beating the Eagles and seeing Jerry Jones eat crow.  And after his summer trash-talking, I really hope the Boys get undressed this evening.  It can happen.  Dallas has a marginal OL. Witten is out. Ratliff is out. Without Ratliff, all the Giants have to do is take care of DeMarcus Ware with some extra help and just make sure Spencer doesn't get into any rhythm.  Eli has the skills players to make Dallas pay as long as he has a little time.

5) "These aren't the droids you're looking for.." The Giants have to cover up a weakness at CB.  A few jedi mind tricks performed by Tuck, Osi and JPP on Tony Romo will have any weakness by Michael Coe compensated for nicely.  John Fox played his jedi mind tricks by stacking blitzes on Dave Thomas's side so that the opposing QB couldn't target the swiss cheese CB. 

6)  "I find your lack of faith disturbing." I still don't believe in Kevin Gilbride, two Super Bowl titles and all.  But our OC raves about Wilson, and that might be the antidote for Gilbride to finally have too many weapons for even him to screw it up.  In English, this means that Gilbride will use Wilson (as long as the rookie can get into the huddle by taking care of blitz pickup) for outlet/flares underneath to bring defenses to their knees.

6a) "Sir, the possibility of successfully navigating an asteroid field is approximately 3,720 to 1." And the possibility of Gilbride calling more than 2 screens in a single game are a little more remote than that.  But with Wilson, hmmm, maybe in 2013?!!!

7)  "The circle is now complete. When I left you, I was but the learner; now I am the master.”  Pay attention to young players like Linval Joseph and Jayron Hosley. They don't have the pedigree of first rounders like Prince and Wilson, but these guys could be staples of the team.  If Prince remains brittle, Hosley could be starting soon enough.  For Joseph, it's his 3rd year, and that is when interior guys on the Defensive Line become men.

8) "Help me Obi-Wan Kenobi, you're my only hope." The replacement referees are going to make a mess of it for some teams and bail out others. That 20% of the game that Bill Walsh said was luck just went up to 25%.

9) "There is good in him. I've felt it."  I'm a critic of Coughlin, but he gets the props.  Tom Coughlin has gotten his players to peak at the right time twice.  There was some luck required last year so that 9 wins got a playoff ticket.  But Coughlin showed that it's more than luck when your players show up big at the biggest moments.

10) "Remember, the Force will be with you, always."  Hey, the Force is most definitely with the Gmen. The Giants are 5-0 in NFC Conference Championship games and 4-1 in Super Bowls.  This franchise is one of the league's favorite sons.  And always remember that the Giants own the NFL's Emperor, aka the original hoodie, Bill Belichick. 

Objectivity. Objectivity. Objectivity. Those are the three driving factors behind the new Ultimate22 platform. We understand there is still a great amount of unknown that comes with film breakdown. On some plays, it will be nearly impossible to grade a player based on completion of his assignment.  In other instances it will be much easier to tell whether or not a player did or did not complete his assignment for that play. Here is one great example—in pass protection a running back, despite his assignment, is always supposed to block inside out. This means that he is always required to block the threat closest to the quarterback, which always happens to be inside. Another good example comes with grading the defensive line position. We all know that leverage is the key to DL play and thus, someone playing “too high” will be easily exposed on the end zone coaches film for us to properly assess.

Ultimate22 Grade Guide

+2: An impact play. A Dave Diehl pancake block to spur a big run. A Victor Cruz shake of a CB that sends him off on a 74-yard touchdown. Michael Boley filling through the “A” gap and stopping the RB in the backfield for 2nd and 13. A JPP strip sack to stall a drive and get the offense back onto the field.

+1: A good play. Corey Webster with a pass defensed in one-on-one coverage. David Wilson breaking a tackle against the Bears on Friday and rumbling for extra yards.

0: The standard grade. This is what you will mostly see on a play-to-play basis. When the player does what is expected of him, no more, no less he will receive a 0. A three-yard rush. A tackle by a linebacker at the second level.

-1: A poor play. In the simplest terms, a negative play. This could mean a center failing to block down for a pulling guard and allowing his man to make a stop in the backfield. It could come in the form of a Martellus Bennett dropped pass that hits him between the numbers.

-2: Getting burned. Think Frank Walker circa 2005. For an offensive skill player, often times this comes in the way of a turnover. A terrible pass into the flat that is jumped by the CB and returned for six. Bradshaw not protecting the ball properly and getting stripped of the ball.  (To contrast, if the RB is holding the ball high and tight and a fluke set of circumstances causes a fumble, then he will get a 0.) There are certainly far more opportunities for a DB to make a “-2” than a OL or DL and we will take this factor into account when evaluating players at particular positions.

Here are a few rules of thumb that the Ultimate22 team will be looking for:

The Double Team

If a player gets double-teamed, that is a +1. Why? Because the rest of the team is benefiting from the respect and attention being afforded to the player. It logically flows- a player who receives the attention of two players certainly should receive the credit for such. Just so it is clear, we will be grading with the understanding that when a player gets double-teamed, he automatically becomes a minimum of a +1, regardless of other factors. If a double-teamed player still manages to make a good play (think the old days when LT would get to the QB despite being doubled), then that becomes a +2.

Cover-2 is not a double team. Getting bracketed (i.e. TE w/ LB covering or trailing) while safety help is right there on top will be considered a double-team.

We want guys like JPP and Cruz to get the points they deserve specifically when they get extra attention. This is the power of Ultimate22, to track this kind of contribution. It flows. If Cruz gets doubled and Nicks (gets the pass and) beats single, they'll both deserve AND GET +1.

If a RB or TE chips a defensive player, that is not a double team but it does lower the standard for what it will take for the player to get a +1 rating. If Osi is still able to apply pressure despite getting chipped in addition to the OL pass blocking against him but still pressures the QB in a timely fashion that would be grounds for a +1. If an interior defensive linemen consistently faces two blockers off the snap (commonplace in both zone and man run blocking schemes) the pattern will be noticed by our graders.

Knowing Assignments

It is our goal to understand just how much we can assume/understand about a player’s assignment on a given play. In seriousness, it is safe to assume that on most plays, the player that we are grading is more or less carrying his assignment out for that particular snap. There will be certain instances where it is glaringly obvious that a player failed to even have an opportunity to complete his assignment (i.e. a LB slipping before he even gets an opportunity to pick up the RB on his route out of the backfield).

Emphasis on “0”

We really want to place an emphasis on the fact that on more plays than not most players are going to receive a 0. That is because out of 130+ snaps in a game, most plays are going to result in a “0.” In this case, a 0 is the median, what is expected out of that player on a play-to-play basis. If Chris Snee is able to open a hole for the RB but isn’t able to move him off the line of scrimmage that is a 0. If Eli Manning checks down to a back that is more likely than not going to stand as a 0. If, however, he has eyes behind his head, slips in and out of traffic behind the line, and then manages to find his RB for a nice salvage of a play which was a possible sack, that is going to be a +1.

The Big Picture

As we go along these rules will be supplemented with new rules and guidelines. While we are confident in our evaluation skills, this is certainly a process that will become more and more refined with time.  Also remember that we may give a player a grade too high on one play and a poor one somewhere else, but the errors (hopefully limited) will average out. We are not trying to be perfect on every single play- we are trying to grade it ALL out so that 1400 grades over the course of a game and over 20,000 grades over the course of a season show trends and general conclusions about what is going on on the field.   

We believe that Ultimate22 will become in an indispensable resource for Giants fans because it will be objective and comprehensive.