If the NFL in 2012 is a passing league, what does that mean about drafting running backs?  We'll tell you what it means: sit back and let one fall to you in the later rounds because they just aren't worth a very high pick. 

Wonder's 2012 Draft- Preliminary list for Running Backs.

Think about it.  How many game-changing stud RBs have been taken in the last 5 years, and how many of them have been worth a R1 pick????!!!!!  We'll tell you: ONE, Adrian Peterson.  And even AP fumbles and has been hurt too often for that pick to be completely worth it either. 

THE PROBLEM IS TWO-FOLD:

1) Running backs obviously are less important given the rules enforcement, which favors passing

2) Running backs get hurt more often because of the massive linemen and speed of the game

2a) With so many RBs getting hurt, platooning is a necessary dynamic, further lessening the impact of any individual RB

Let's look at the RBs who have been drafted in R1 in the past 5 years.

2007: Adrian Peterson, Marshawn Lynch

2008: Darren McFadden, Jonathan Stewart, Felix Jones, Rashard Mendenhall, Chris Johnson

2009: Knowshon Moreno, Donald Brown, Beanie Wells

2010: CJ Spiller, Ryan Matthews, Jahvid Best

2011: Mark Ingram

Chris Johnson is an excellent RB, but even he is getting pounded by too many carries.  The physical abuse of the NFL is simply overwhelming for the best of these guys.  So you have to get a RB in the middle or later on in the draft.  Reese and the Giants have figured this out.  They leverage later round picks like Jacobs R4, Bradshaw R7, Ward (Jets Practice Squad), Brown R4, Scott R7.  This is precisely what you have to do- don't waste high resources (ie Round 1) on a Running back.  There are plenty of these guys later on who you'll be able to pick up.

Wonder likes more than a few RBs in this draft for value.  Names of some are Martin, Turbin, Pierce, Rainey, Polk.  He particularly likes mid-rounders Ronnie Hillman and Cyrus Gray for the Giants.  But there are enough guys on his list, many of which will work. 

Wonder evaluates the OL.  These guys may not get the press, but astute football fans know that the game is won and lost in the trenches. 

The Giants OL has been neglected.  Very solid coaching by Pat Flaherty held this unit together despite the losses of Seubert and O'Hara last year.  Baas is underwhelming, as his run blocking weakness put more pressure on Eli to bail out the team consistently.  Beatty was serviceable until getting hurt, so he remains a question mark.  Snee played hurt, showed some signs of age and was not dominant they way he used to be.  Snee plays with an awful amount of pride, so I look forward to him bouncing back with a great year, assuming whatever nagging injuries he played with are behind him.  McKenzie took the end of plays off, and exposed Eli to unnecessary pressures and hits.  Diehl gets criticism but his versatility and durability enable the Giants to continually compete.  Probably my favorite lineman is a sub, Mitch Petrus.  I rooted for Baas to stay out so that we could see the Petrus-Boothe rotation, where the Giants would run the ball much more effectively.  How much of this was due to Baas playing hurt?  I do not know.  Flaherty is the star, as he held it together with plenty of moving parts.

Now it is Reese's turn to draft some good Offensive Linemen.  As in two.  And all else equal, I'd prefer Tackles.  The good news is that because this draft is not top heavy, there is enough middle of the road value to pick up some slabs of meat to protect Eli and make some holes for the RBs.  Wonder sees a handful of guys for the Giants, including a late rounder Tackle named Josh Oglesby.  Then there are Kelechi Osemele and Amini Silatolu, two Guards who the Giants should "run to the podium" to take at the end of R3.  A la Oglesby, Brandon Brooks is a Guard who you can develop into a starter, this one in R4.   

All in all, there are ~23 potential starters in this draft.  Considering there are 160 starting linemen in the NFL, that is about right.  (Separately, remember that Guards and Centers are not drafted as agressively, hence you can get a starter with more ease from this group at a later point in the draft than other positions of need.)

OL is meat and potatoes, but if the Giants can get it right, it will make them a terrific offense.  Eli has elevated his game to such a high level.. combine that with a running game and protection and he is going to be difficult to deal with.  Investing in good OLmen isn't sexy but it will make the Giants offense hum.

Wonder was sick, but has gotten better in time to do his work on the 2012 NFL Draft.  The amount of preparation it takes to do this is monumental.  Anyone that has the energy and time to do it deserves a medal. Anyone that has the courage to subject themselves to the verification process and be held accountable in 3 and 5 years deserves a medal.  Anyone who does this is welcome to join the Draft Project.  Pete and Wonder have put in this effort for the past two years.  Their work will get verified in the 2013 offseason.  We owe a debt of gratitude to them for all of their efforts.

These evaluations are not easy.  Our guys don't have the ability to interview the players and make determinations based on medical and psychological tests.  Ryan Broyles is one example.  The kid got injured.  Depending on the medical he could be a 1 or a 7.  But for most of the rest, the projections are far more decisive.

Wonder believes that the 2012 Draft is not great.  But here comes the fun part- Wide Receiver in 2012 is very deep.  It is NOT top heavy.  Deep yes, top heavy no.  Wonder adds that "Andy's Rules" for WR have never been more true here in 2012.  Why?  Because the metamorphosis of the NFL to a pass happy league make the talent go to WR in high school and college.  So the 6'2" 235 lb LBer becomes the 6' 2" 215 lb WR.  In the old days, these monster WRs were few and far between.  Now in 2012, the draft is chock full of them.  In high school and college they are learning how to run and catch the ball.  So the crop is simply larger; enough with aspirations can make it to this point.  We have 29 guys this year that can be drafted at WR.  And considering that Wonder intentionally does not grade anyone in Round 1, that means there is a lot of opportunity for a team like the Giants looking to get another WR on the roster. There are 18 guys with a 3 (solid starter) or 4 (replaceable starter) rating. You can practically close your eyes and pick a good one in R3 or R4.

There are many guys listed that I'd love for the Giants to draft.  But there is one that jumps out for me via Wonder's description- Devon Wylie.  He is only rated a 4 replaceable starter, but that is because he is a slot WR.  When he is referred to as 'a fast Wes Welker,' you've got my attention.  Having a guy like that, with Cruz and Nicks plus Eli in his peaking prime, and every Sunday can be a show. He's not rated that high because he is not an every down player, but on 3rd down it gets fun.  And considering there are a handful of these guys: Joe Adams, Keyshawn Martin, Travis Benjamin, Jarius Wright, not to mention some later round guys too, it is going to be VERY easy to see the NY Giants pick up a WR that will help this team.  When you consider this assessment of a deep WR draft that is not top heavy, it fits for why the Gmen would not need to chase Mario.  Whether it is a slot WR or simply another big prototypical 6'2" 215 lb WR who can be groomed to be the backup to Nicks (who gets more than his fair share of injuries), the Giants rate to do well at this position in late April.  Reese has two R4 picks. Use one of them here, as the depth should mean something is around at that spot.

Note: these #s are not set.  The Rankings are not done either, as the board has not been finalized yet.  But the comments and relative value for where they should get picked from 1 to 200 are good placeholders until next week.  Press the zoom "+" key three times after you have clicked on the link.   

As has become tradition, the Giants continue to crawl to the off-season while many teams around the league choose to make their splash in the Spring.  Reese's deliberate and measured style in free agency is not sexy but it has addressed personnel issues effectively enough to deliver two titles.  For those of you looking for some headline stuff... 

-It seems that Jonathan Goff is headed out the door, ending what looked to be a potentially promising career before his knee injury slowed him down.

Via the Daily News- "It's looking more and more like Jonathan Goff will not be the Giants' MLB next season. Goff, who missed the entire 2011 season after tearing his ACL in the preseason, reportedly worked out for the Miami Dolphins recently. He also worked out for the Cleveland Browns last month..." 

Goff seems to be intent on going the way of Steve Smith post-injury and not the path of defensive teammates Mathias Kiwanuka and Terrell Thomas. No big deal. Not sure what really could have been expected out of Goff in 2012 after coming off of an ACL injury. We also don't know what exactly a healthy Goff can offer to the Giants. Certainly not this. Or this. Last one. 

Regardless, help may be on the way. 

Mike Garafolo of The Star Ledger explained that he has been looking into a rumor that began on another Giants blog, one that seems to be picking up steam as Mikey G digs deeper:

"Someone alerted me to the post last night and I did some checking. If this one is out of left field and completely bogus, no one has told me that yet. In fact, I get the impression the Huddle’s sleuth is hot on the trail of this one. As I said on Twitter, there might be some fire behind this smoke. Adding to my suspicions is the fact Rivers is in the area right now. The former USC standout, whom the Bengals selected ninth overall in 2008, tweeted to someone Tuesday night he’s“stopping in NYC” on his way back from a trip to France and Italy. Of course, if you follow his timeline, you’ll see he stopped here on the way out as well."

While Rivers has yet to settle in and provide a lights out season because of some injuries, he is still a 25 year old linebacker with no "ailments." His impressive rookie season was cut short thanks to a Hines Ward crack-back block and he missed 2011 with a wrist injury. As Garafolo points out, Rivers' injuries are nothing that will reoccur if he were to get a fresh start with the Giants:

"In some ways, a trade for Rivers would make sense for the Giants. They’d get a guy who has a lot of talent at a position of need and would be buying low because he missed all of last season with a wrist issue that required surgery. Sure, that would be a concern but it’s not like it’s, say, an ACL – the injury Jonathan Goff is trying to overcome."

Garafolo also points out that while Rivers would help fill a hole for the Giants at linebacker- the MLB position.

"Jerry Reese did mention Boley as a candidate to move into the middle, however, and there’s always a chance Mathias Kiwanuka could bounce back to end should Osi Umenyiora head elsewhere. Or maybe it's as simple as the Giants' thinking the 6-2, 242-pound Rivers can play the middle."

I agree with that sentiment. First off, the Giants base defense is a nickel package that only features two linebackers on the field. Our defense lives and dies with our pass rush and the coverage behind it. I just can't find a problem with having another linebacker who can play in space. Can't have too many of those. Why force yourself to acquire a MLB just because. Give me a guy who is going to be effective on 60% of the plays rather then the guy who will only have an impact when teams run the football. In those situations where Fewell did feel the need to bring out the 4-3, the Giants would be more than fine with some combo of Michael Boley, Jacquin Williams, Kiwi and Rivers.

I can't imagine it will cost too much to acquire Rivers. Take a look at the Eagles deal with DeMeco Ryans for starters, where they gave up a fourth rounder for the talented MLB. Gotta think Rivers will run Big Blue even less then that since he essentialy lost his job to Thomas Howard as OTAs approach and there have even been rumors of him being released. 

Maybe the Giants acquire Rivers and he takes advantage of the fresh start and has some better fortune with injuries. Or maybe this Rivers rumor is just that and fizzles out as soon as this afternoon. Generally chasing rumors is not something we do on this NY Giants blog, but this one could make sense if it materializes. 

At the end of the day, I trust that the Giants will do their homework on Rivers, his injuries and his potential.  If he can be signed for the right price it would make a lot of sense.  It fits with Reese's general approach and would address a need. 

Free agency is winding down and the NFL Draft is fast approaching, in the meantime,  let us get up to speed on news about the Super Bowl Champs.

Reserve running back Andre Brown was suspended four games for violating the NFL's substance abuse policy.  With Brown suspended, Bradshaw banged up, and Ware's history of concussions, the Giants are thin at yet another position.  But this opens up a door for Da'Rel Scott.  Last year with the protracted labor lock out, players did not have a structured off season program.  This may have affected many rookies especially Scott.  Look for Scott to impress this year.

Amani Toomer believes the Giants are going to miss Mario Manningham.  "Losing Manningham, that third playmaker," Toomer said while making an appearance at the opening of the NFL pop-up store in Manhattan. "It’s easy to take two receivers out of the game –- easier –- especially when your running game isn’t going as well as it had been in the past. And the tight end position really isn’t a threat. Now you have to look for someone else to make the plays or get their running game going because there’s going to be a big vacuum there without him."

Good color by Toomer. With a non-existent running game and decent tight ends,  Manningham as the Giants third receiver made the passing attack very formidable.  Although Manningham will be missed, Eli Manning was the main reason the Giants won the Super Bowl this season.  It is my belief, a quarterback makes a receiver better.  So Ramses Barden and Jerrel Jernigan will get their shots at replacing Manningham. As Scott was affected by last year's compressed off season, WR Jerrel Jernigan was too.  If Barden and Jernigan can stay healthy, the Giants will be okay at the third wide receiver position.       

Devin Thomas signed with the Bears. Thomas, a second round pick by Washington in the 2008 NFL Draft, has never lived up to expectations.  Last season, Thomas was the Giants kick off returner.  He finished the season averaging 24.3 yards per return.  According to NFL stats provided by FoxSports.com, Thomas with his 24.3 yards per return ranked 41st in the league.  This is an area the Giants have to improve on.  With Da'Rel Scott expecting a bigger role in the team's offense, the Giants will select a speedy player in the Draft to improve the kickoff return game.  

Safety Stevie Brown is a Giant.  His signing means Chad Jones will not be playing anytime soon.  Two years ago, the Giants drafted Jones.  Then Jones was involved in a serious car accident in which he almost lost his leg.  Jones, a safety and special teams stand out at LSU, would have helped the Giants in both areas.  But his recovery is going to take more time.  Let us hope he can make a full comeback in 2013.  

Back up defensive end Dave Tollefson will not be returning to the Giants.