Today Michael Strahan will get voted into the Pro Football Hall of Fame.  This will come as no surprise to the regular readers of this NY Giants blog.  Almost 5 years ago, before Strahan officially announced his retirement, we wrote about this future event:

IN PRAISE OF THE BEST NEW YORK GIANTS DEFENSIVE END OF ALL TIME- MICHAEL STRAHAN

I reread the post and savored the memories of Strahan in blue (and white and red for XLVI).  Man Crush? Absolutely.  But in my defense, I think I may only be the 2nd best booster of #92 in this household, as my wife probably likes Stray even more than me!  10 years ago at the First Annual Draft Day Party (do they still do those?) at Giants Stadium, my girls gleefully reported to their mother that Strahan's locker was Super Messy.  I think that sealed it for Gap Tooth.  

All joking aside about the locker, I am continually amazed about the shallow discussion of Strahan's football career.  The sacks were the tip of the iceberg.  It was all about the COMPLETE player on every single defensive snap, pass OR run. If I had to rewrite that ode to the Giants legend, I would layer in one more point alluded to in the reference to Jeff Garcia.  You see, there are sack artists and there are football players.  As good a football player and as vital a component as Osi Umenyiora has been to XLII and XLVI, he is literally an entire level below Strahan.  Strahan maintained pocket integrity whenever he went at the QB.  My memory of his pass rush mechanics does not go back to the very beginning of his career, but once he was established, I cannot recall Strahan selfishly going south and allowing the QB to saunter out of the pocket for easy pickings.  He contained Garcia beautifully on that pass rush and he did it that way every time he went to the QB.  The genius of Strahan was how he forced Garcia to pass in it in the first place, being ever so careful to prevent the nimble QB from even THINKING about running out of the pocket. 

Today's game has the read option with Russell Wilson, Colin Kaepernick, Cam Newton, RGIII....  this means pocket contain pass rushing, where your lane is protected, is more vital than ever.  How do you think Strahan's skills would have fared in the latest wrinkle of the NFL?!   He'd stomp you out.

A toast, NFL fans everywhere, to the best NY Giants Defensive End of All Time and Hall of Famer #92, Michael Strahan.   

Even if you don't fancy yourself a "betting man (or woman)" odds are you may have peeked at some Super Bowl prop bets in the last few days. The options range from choices like, "who will score the game's last TD" to "will Lebron James score more points on Sunday than the 49ers." Add these to your traditional wagering options (point spread, over/under) and the possibilities for betting are endless. It's a great way to take a break from the constant cycle of the daily Ray Lewis coverage followed by the "Ray Lewis gets too much coverage" coverage. 

Note: All spreads and totals are taken from sportsbetting.ag

Favorite Prop Bets

Who will have more rushing yards-- Bernard Pierce -115 (-5.5 yards) vs LaMichael James (-115)

Bernard Pierce (TOP PICK)

This one is simple: James is the 3rd rushing option for the 49ers, while Pierce serves as the 2nd for the Ravens. James has gotten 8 carries in this year's playoffs for just 55 yards while Pierce has totaled 27 for 169 yards. Pierce locks this one up fairly easily as his role in the Baltimore backfield has become fairly large. Just to be clear, as long as Pierce rushes for 6 more yards than James, you're a winner. This is my top play for SB47.

Total Tackles (solo+assist):

Ray Lewis OVER 11.5  (TOP PICK)

Whether or not you still think he is a top-flight linebacker, there is no denying that Lewis still picks up tackles in bunches. Yes he makes his fair share of solo stops but no one is better at finding a gang tackle or a ball carrier who is on his way down. It also helps that the official scorer tends to be very generous in awarding tackles (the league's least respected stat in my opinion), especially when it comes to Lewis. Can't imagine him not exceeding this total in his 249th and final career game.

First Kickoff is a Touchback

Yes (-170) (TOP PICK)

Yes you are nearly forced to lay 2-to-1 odds, but don't let that deter you. Both Akers and Tucker have very strong legs. Tucker had plenty of touchbacks this season including going 8-for-16 in this year's playoffs (not bad considering the games were played in Baltimore, Denver and New England) and was 3-4 in only indoor game this year (@ Houston) . And while Akers has been a disaster this season in terms of hitting field goals, he too went 5-for-5 on touchbacks in his most recent domed game---the NFC title game win over Atlanta.  

Player to score game's first touchdown:

Anquan Boldin (+1000)

Ed Dickson (+4475)

Randy Moss (+1950)

Delanie Walker (+2500)

Outside of Boldin, these are probably not the guys that you'd expect to score the game's first TD. With longer odds than some of the more notable options (Kaepernick, Rice, V. Davis) these choices offer a good return on whatever you put in. Both Moss and Walker are solid red zone options for SF and the same goes for Boldin and to an extent, Dickson. As the Ravens 2nd TE, you would be pinning your wager on the hope that Flacco finds a wide open Dickson off of a goal line PA pass. The long odds make it worth a look.

It was 22 years ago today, January 20, 1991, that Nose Tackle Erik Howard put a helmet on RB Roger Craig in Candlestick Park, jarring the ball loose.  LT recovered the fumble, the Giants drove down enough yards for a 5th FG, and the Gmen beat the 49ers 15-13.  Giants fans everywhere who are old enough can remember that day and it puts an instant smile on their faces. 

Last year was not all too different.  The 2011 season has to be the single luckiest series of events for Giants fans in any season that I can remember.  So many incredibly fortunate things happened to part the Red Sea for the Gmen.  A lesser known detail is how Ted Ginn Jr. got hurt the previous week vs the New Orleans Saints. This forced the 49ers to go with backup Kyle Williams at not only WR but more importantly (who woulda thunk?!) kickoff and punt returner.  The rest is history.  The Giants simply do not win the game without Williams' two turnovers, which were the only turnovers of the game.  

Turnovers are a big part of the game.  The Giants have beaten the "Three-peat" 49ers and Harbaugh's 49ers teams twice now in SF in the NFC Championship.  And both games ended via setups of key late turnovers. Considering that the Giants have also beaten the Patriots in the Super Bowl twice in the past 5 years, it is probably a little bit of relief to both franchises that neither the Patriots or the 49ers have to see the Giants from here on out.  And this seques this NY Giants blog writer's picks for the winners of today's Conference Championship games.  I am thinking 49ers-Patriots.  I'll be rooting for the Ravens in the AFC game and a competitive game in the NFC title matchup.

I would not be surprised by any of the 4 permutations for the Super Bowl.  Why? Because the NFL is slop.  Every team can win, and every week there is enough weakness is play that allows for any team to win.  Last week, we saw a prohibitively favored Broncos team choke vs the Ravens.  Anything is possible.  The Ravens deserved the win (the 2 DEN special teams TDs overshadowed how the Ravens were outplaying the Broncos otherwise).  What does it say that the #1 seed loses like that? 

In ATL, a similar storyline developed with the Seattle Seahawks essentially taking the first half off before showing up in the proper time zone and beating the Falcons.  If not for Pete Carroll pulling a Prevent Defense Special with 0:31 left, ATL is bounced from the playoffs with another none and done. What does it say that the #1 seed almost loses like that?

ATL is not a great football team.  I expect them to fold at some point along this journey.  When they were up 27-7 vs the Seahawks, I was not buying their stock.  They may win today, but I am not buying their stock.  And they may pull off a sad miracle and win 2 weeks from today, but I am not buying their stock.  Sure, it would be great for Tony Gonzalez to get a ring.  But other than that, these guys are not ready for primetime. They remind me a lot the 2006 Chicago Bears, who somehow slipped their fraud all the way to the Super Bowl before getting unmasked by Indianapolis.  I never bought the Bears stock that year either.  If SF learns ANYTHING from the Giants loss in last year's NFC Championship, it is that 60 minutes of concentration will win you this game.  If SF plays a clean game, they will beat ATL.  This is because, even though SF is not as good as SEA, Harbaugh is a better coach than Carroll any day of the year.  Harbaugh will kick the FG.  Harbaugh's team will not squander a FG at the end of the half.  Harbaugh will not go into the Super Prevent with 0:31.  Yes, Mike Smith and Pete Carroll each tried to choke the game, and ATL won because Carroll was the bigger loser.  There aren't many people who think Jim Harbaugh is a nice guy. If ATL wins today, I will not shed a tear for the Niners. But the 49ers should win because the have a decided edge in coaching.

There is not a great deal to say about the Ravens-Pats matchup.  These teams know each other very well.  Let's remember something from last year's AFC Championship. If Lee Evans hold onto the ball, the Ravens play the Giants in the Super Bowl.  I adhere to the belief that the post-video Cheaters are cursed now and that God has a plan for the Patriots to get teased in a maximum way before succumbing to an otherworldly defeat.  How else do you explain the Tyree helmet?  How else do you explain Welker inexplicably dropping a wide open ball that seals a title?  I believe the Giants were destined to win.  I believe the Patriots are destined to lose.  Until further notice, the only conclusion I can come up with from 2007 and 2011 is that the Patriots have sinned and now they are cursed.  So the way the blueprint looks, using the "cursed" prism, is that they will beat the Ravens, only to get teased again in a loss to the 49ers in XLVII.  If NE faces ATL, then it will be the cursed team vs the not-ready-for-primetime Mike Smith, which is akin to the unstoppable force meeting the immovable object.  I just have no answer to that one, other than to expect NE would somehow break the curse because Smith is too great a loser.

So here are the scenarios:

SF vs NE and SF wins the title. (This is my expected outcome.)
SF vs BAL and a coach named Harbaugh wins. (I would lean towards Jim.)
ATL vs BAL and BAL wins the title.
ATL vs NE and NE breaks the curse.

Follow me on Twitter, we'll have fun watching the games.     

For diehard NFL fans, there is nothing like the divisional round of the playoffs.  We get four games between the best teams in the league.  Because of free agency, the general quality of each team has been lowered, but it also means that the winners of wildcard weekend tend to surprise the 1&2 seeded "bye" teams more.  Yesterday's thriller in Denver was all about that trend continuing.

Here on this NY Giants blog, we know all about being the underdog in the divisional playoff round.  In fact, since free agency started, the Giants have reached the divisional round as the favored "bye" seed twice (2000 and 2008 [jan01 and jan09])) and have been the underdog road team twice (2007 and 2011).  It is a little more than anecdotal that the Giants have won two Super Bowl titles in those road dog years and come up empty (one divisional win but 0-1 Super Bowl) in the other two. The Giants have plenty of company in recent years in using the Wild Card round (4 playoff wins) as a route to the title:

1-2 Seed Super Bowl Winners 2005-Present
2008 Steelers
2009 Saints

3-6 Seed Super Bowl Winners 2005-Present
2005 Steelers
2006 Colts
2007 Giants
2010 Packers
2011 Giants

Of course we cherry-picked the place to start, in 2005.  But the point is that 5 out of the last 7 years have dealt a winner from the lower seeds.  My takeaway for what it means is simple- playing through and continuing to get better each week affords the team that "HAS TO PLAY" the wildcard round an extra opportunity to improve.  It is hard to argue that BAL was hot, having lost 4 of their remaining 5 regular season games.  Yet we all watched as the Ravens beat the 1-seeded Broncos despite allowing 14 points on special teams.      

Two teams that were peaking played each other last weekend.  The Redskins won their last 7 straight after starting 3-6.  The Seahawks had won 7 of their last 8 with 5 straight.      

We reviewed the tape of the first half of the Seattle-SF Week 16 rout.  The game was pretty much over at halftime, with the Seahawks up 28-6.  There was a pivotal play early that did mask some of the lopsidedness of this game, where Seattle blocked a chipshot FG, with the ball returned ~95 yards for a TD.  That was a 10 point swing.  But there is an interesting takeaway from watching this game- while we have focused on the exploits of RGIII, there are 2 other RGIII-lites out there in Kaepernick and Wilson.  This QB option offense (when you have a credible passing threat) is causing a lot of tumult in the NFL.  The trend over the past ~15 years has been more and more passing.  Enter these mobile QBs, who stress your entire defense, but particularly your LBers.  While the NFL is a passing league dominated by offense, these mobile QBs are shifting what these offenses can do, and defenses are currently a step behind.  When RGIII was "somewhat" healthy early in the playoff game last weekend, he and the Skins shredded the Seahawks 14-0.  As soon as RGIII lost his ability to run, Seattle clawed its way back in the game and took the lead for good.  Credit Wilson with part of that comeback, as his versatility is doing the same thing to opposing defenses.

Yesterday, we saw more of this mobile QB wreaking havoc, as Kaepernick turned the great Clay Matthews into jello.  When you see Matthews lost, looking for where the ball is while the player with it sails by him, you know this is not the same NFL as previous years.  I will use this theme to predict that Wilson and the Seahawks beat ATL today, and that the winner of the SEA-SF contest next weekend will beat the AFC in the Super Bowl.  Call it the RGIII-Wilson-Kaepernick mobile QB theme.  As long as you are healthy, the defenses do not yet have the answers.  It will be hard for SEA to win its second straight East Coast playoff game. But I will take the underdog that has the mobile QB and the solid defense. It is pretty crazy to take a rookie QB, and then to possibly call him to go all the way, but you have to break the mold in order to respect the power of change.

Side remarks

1) Shanahan was negligent in protecting his franchise QB from further injury.  This will be a huge help to the Gmen, because this is the second knee ligament tear for RGIII.  Given what we said above about SF and SEA, you still need to draft LBer to equip yourself with managing this new offensive dynamic.

1a) The way the Skins handled the news about RGIII's knee after the game and in subsequent days was typical PR denial of the reality and then the magnitude.  We are STILL LEARNING just how bad it is publicly.  For our part, read our tweet almost immediately after it happened.

2) All I could think about when Peyton got picked in OT yesterday was Tracy Porter's Q4 Manning pick vs the Saints in Super Bowl XLIV.  Peyton Manning is going to the Hall of Fame in a limousine on his first ballot, but he has "blinked" way too many times in the playoffs for my liking.

3) Follow me and Rich Conforti on Twitter during the playoffs.  We try to reply to tweets.  Another person we recommend following is Mike Pereira, who really helps with these play reviews.  I pretty much only use twitter for the NFL (outside of a few financial remarks), and it is a great way to keep up with the games. 

10 reasons why I will be rooting for the Washington Redskins this postseason.

1) RGIII is great for the game of football.

2) RGIII has humility and respect for himself, his opponents, and the game.

3) The Redskins make the NFC East tougher, and force the Giants to get better.

4) Maybe a successful Redskins teams forces the Giants to draft a LBer in Round 1 for the first time in 29 years.

5) Victor Cruz is rooting for the Redskins this postseason.

6) Of the Giants 3 opponents in the NFC East, I dislike the Skins the least.

7) In the NFC, I have no interest in rooting for Harbaugh, Rodgers or Carroll.  MIN and ATL are boring.

8) In the AFC, I won't root for the Cheater.  I never root for BAL (unless they play vs the Cheater).  I still do not believe Peyton should have come back. IND, HOU and CIN are boring.

9) Redskins fans have paid plenty for their owner's hopelessness.  We had a decade of darkness in the '70's. They had two decades.

10) Hey, they beat the Boys last week, it's the least we can do.