Opposing teams will make Eli Manning go to someone else.   Because WR Mario Manningham, one of the Giants' heroes from Super Bowl XLVI, will be playing for another team in 2012.  His spectacular post season will land him a lucrative free agent contract.  Yesterday, at the NFL Combine located at Lucas Oil Field, Giants GM Jerry Reese spoke about Mario Manningham's situation.  

“He’s a good football player, and obviously players, when free agency comes around for them, they want to make as much money as possible,” Reese said today. “So we’ll see how it unfolds. But he is a good football player, and we’re glad he’s been a Giant for us and his contributions are outstanding for us. We’ll see what happens moving forward with respect to that.”  

Reading between the lines, the Giants and Manningham are going to part ways.  Like Gibril Wilson and Kawika Mitchell four years ago, Manningham will get a significant raise in a month.  In the meantime, with the expected departure of Manningham, the Giants will have to find their third wide receiver.  Is this guy on the Giants roster? Perhaps, the oft-injured Ramses Barden can fill this void.  Or last year's rookie Jerrel Jernigan can step up.  Let us not forget about Domenik Hixon. Can he make a full recovery from knee surgery? We shall see. 

On Friday, we learned THREE Giants' defensive linemen underwent off season surgery.  Justin Tuck, Linval Joseph, and Chris Canty all went under the knife.  Tuck had work done on his shoulder.  While Joseph had bone chips removed from his ankle,  and Canty's knee was "cleaned" up.  Because three defensive linemen had surgery, does this mean the Giants will extend Osi Umenyiora's contract?  At this point, it sure seems like Osi is a lock to remain a Giant until he retires.  Clearly, Reese's belief system has been the defensive line is the cornerstone of the Giants defense.  With three starters having surgery, and last year's rookie Marvin Austin coming off a lost season, it seems to me Reese's hand is forced.  Factor in the fact the  Giants caught fire when Osi, Tuck, and JPP were all playing at the same time.  Yesterday, Reese commented about Osi. 

“We are open to everything right now,” Reese said. “But we don’t know what we can do yet. We don’t even know what the cap number is going to be. There are a lot of issues that we have to fix and address. So we will see what will happen, though.”  

During the Giants playoff run, here are several quotes about Osi's impact on this team. 

“This all turned around when No. 72 got back healthy,” fellow end Dave Tollefson said.

“He makes it easier for everyone, because he’s just so relentless — stop his first move, he has a countermove,” defensive tackle Rocky Bernard said. “He never stops coming, which helps everybody.”   

“The thing about Osi that has always made a great impression on me is, he’s going full speed,” Tom Coughlin said. “He sends the right message to everybody else.”    

"That’s where our energy comes from, that’s where our confidence comes from, that’s where our swagger comes from,” defensive coordinator Perry Fewell said of the line.  

Figure it out Jerry.  Keep number 72 in blue.      


        

Sure-handed Patriots' wide receiver Wes Welker dropped albeit a difficult ball, without question, was the turning point of Super Bowl XLVI.  With the Patriots up 17 to 15 and with exactly 4 minutes left in the contest, Welker could not corral Patriots quarterback Tom Brady's throw.  If we look back at this crucial play, on the surface,  Brady did not make an accurate pass.  Thus, this caused Welker to twist his body around to look for the ball.  Consequently, Welker let the ball slip throw his fingers.  Instead of the Patriots adding to their lead and perhaps winning this Super Bowl, they were forced to punt.  Then it was Eli Time.  

Boston Globe's Greg Bedard wrote an article about this infamous drop which will forever be part of Super Bowl lore.  Unlike Jackie Smith's regrettable dropped pass from Roger Staubach in Super Bowl XIII,  Welker's drop had a higher degree of difficulty.  Bedard asked NFL coaches about this play.  One is an anonymous quarterbacks and  the other a receivers coach.  Here is their take:

Two veteran NFL assistant coaches - a quarterbacks coach and a receivers coach - were asked about the play. They don’t know the exact play-call and how the Patriots teach the play, but they agreed that the back-shoulder throw was not the type of pass Welker expected.

“You don’t have to throw a back-shoulder on that because you’re in the seam, and if you’ve thrown it properly, you beat the safety by taking some air out of the throw,’’ the quarterbacks coach said. “I think that was an inaccurate ball. Anytime you get an inaccurate ball, that’s a tough catch when you’re running vertically toward the goal line like Welker was.

“I wouldn’t count that as a drop if I were charting my football team.’’

The receivers coach agreed, to a point.

“You expect that ball to be in front,’’ he said. “But in the end, it was a catchable ball. Was it where it should have been? No, it’s not where you normally expect it. You’d like it out in front and just run into it.

“It was behind him and it would have been, not a great catch, but a good catch. And he just missed the ball.’’

On the contrary, according to Eric Edholm at Pro Football Weekly,  he looked at this play through a different prism.  
Brady floated a pass that hit Welker in the hands. He twisted around, the pass
not quite perfect but darned good, and dropped it.  Furthermore, the Giants secondary blew their coverage.  The Giants botched their coverage on the play, rotating from a two-deep to a
single-high safety look. One problem: Not everyone got the message. Kenny Phillips was out of
position, and it allowed Welker, who was running up the inside edge of the
numbers, to get free, more wide open than he — or any other Patriots receiver —
had been all game. "We were in a man-coverage concept, and the set they came out in (five wide
receivers) moved us to a different concept," Giants defensive coordinator Perry
Fewell said. "We tried to communicate that; everyone wasn't able to hear it."

Based on Edholm's analysis, Brady's throw not perfect but darn good,  a busted coverage which allowed Welker to find an open space in the Giants defense, and a reliable receiver not being able to secure the football.  Was there something else going on here?  

Using physics,  Dr. Eric Goff, Associate Professor of Physics and Chair of the Physics Department at Lynchburg College, provided his explanation on Welker's dropped pass.   "Though not perfect, Brady's pass found Welker between three Giants defenders. Welker was rotating clockwise in an attempt to make the catch. Newton's laws tell us that initiating rotation takes a torque, which is a force multiplied by a lever arm distance," Dr. Goff said.  He goes on.  "In Welker's case, the force came from friction between his shoes and the turf; the lever-arm distance was the distance from his shoes in contact with the turf and the vertical rotation axis passing through his head and torso. Catching a ball while rotating is tough, but Welker had made tougher catches in his career."     

Goff is much smarter than me.  However, in his analysis, he does not account for the playing surface.  Even though Lucas Oil Field has been praised by players for being an outstanding surface, unfortunately, it is an artificial surface. And artificial turf does have its limitations.  According to Skylar Christensen of naturesfinestseed.com:  Artificial turf has a higher coefficient of friction, meaning that players are more likely to “stick” to the surface instead of sliding naturally across it. After viewing the replay on of this play in slow motion, it appears, Welker's foot gets "caught" in the turf.  As a result, he was unable to gain his balance. As Goff did state, the force came from the friction between his shoes and the turf. Nevertheless, the force of friction is much greater on an artificial surface than grass.  Putting this together, one can deduce this is why he did not make this catch.  

In a season in which this Giants team caught many breaks, the biggest break happened to be the playing surface at the Super Bowl.  If this game was played on grass, perhaps, Super Bowl XLVI could have had a different outcome.     


    

Since winning and then celebrating Super Bowl XLVI, things have simmered down for the Giants.  In the meantime, let us catch up on the latest Giants news.

On Monday, Giants DE Osi Umenyiora made a guest appearance on ESPN radio's Mike and Mike program.  When asked about returning to the Giants for the 2012 regular season, this is what Osi shared.  

“We’re just going to have to wait and see,” Umenyiora said. “I can see it going either way. I can see where they would keep me, I can see where they would trade me, because it makes sense both ways. So hopefully things will work out in my interest. I know the team is going to do what’s best for them. They’ve always made the right decisions for that organization. Whether that’s keeping me or trading me, I’d love to stay, but at the end of the day I understand it’s a business and hopefully things will work out.”  

Even though Osi is still under contract for the 2012 season, most likely, the Giants will retain him for another year. Unless, another team makes the Giants an offer in which they cannot refuse.  Despite missing 7 games due to injuries in the 2011 season,  Osi managed to register NINE sacks in NINE games. Additionally, according to NFL Films' Greg Cosell, Osi's critical strip of Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers in the NFC Divisional playoff turned out to be a game changing play.  Umenyiora knocking the ball out of Rodgers hands on 1^st possession of 2^nd half was game’s biggest play, Jennings wide open on “sluggo” versus Webster – Would have been an easy TD.  There is no coincidence the Giants got on this "hot" streak leading up to a Super Bowl win with a healthy Osi.  Clearly, Osi is a play maker.  At this point, the Giants would be remiss in trading him.  Lingering injuries to DE Justin Tuck affected his play in 2011. For the most part of the 2011 season, Tuck was a shell of himself.  So keeping Osi because of "wear and tear" injuries to Tuck would be a safe move.  And former DE and now linebacker Mathias Kiwanuka could slide back to defensive end.  But remember he sustained a neck injury in 2010.  Because of this neck injury, the Giants signed him to a two year contract prior to the 2011 season. 

On the other hand, the Giants might jettison Osi to a team in exchange for draft picks and perhaps a player.  With the emergence of JPP as the best defensive lineman in the league, the Giants may want to retool other areas of the team: offensive line, linebacker, and running back. (areas which we have touched on earlier this week)   In other words with JPP playing at a sky high level, Osi has become expendable.  The Giants thinking maybe let us get something for him now.  As opposed to having him leave after the 2012 season with just being rewarded with a compensatory pick.  Remember, in the 2011 draft,  the Giants second round pick Marvin Austin suffered a season ending injury.  He very well may be part of the Giants three DT rotation in 2012.  Versatile Chris Canty can play DE and DT.   Furthermore, a scrappy Dave Tollefson could get more snaps at DE in 2012 too.  If Osi is no longer a Giant, the Giants do have contingency plans. 

As Osi stated things could go either way.  Only time will tell what the Giants plan to do with Osi.

Speaking of time,  it has been almost two years since Giants 3rd round pick Chad Jones was involved in a gruesome automobile accident.  It appears, Jones will be ready for off season workouts.  But it is too premature to tell if he will be partaking in on the field drills.  Here is Jones' February 15th interview on WWL radio in New Orleans.   

Finally, former Giants defensive coordinator Bill Sheridan gets another chance.  On February 17th, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers announced Sheridan would be their defensive coordinator.  The infamous Sheridan presided over one of the worst defenses in Giants' franchise history.  His defense allowed the second most points in team history, and teams scored 40 points or more FIVE times.  At his press conference, Sheridan defended himself.  His cockamamie excuses were injuries and dumbing down the defense engendered a defensive free-fall. 

“Even though we started out the season 5-0 and we had the No. 1-ranked defense in the National Football League after sustaining a couple of season-ending injuries to some of starters – Antonio Pierce, Kenny Phillips. . . we started to falter and we hit a skid during the middle of the season,” Sheridan said. “In hindsight, looking back, I think one of the things we probably did was we assumed, as a defensive staff, we assumed because we had made the playoffs four previous years . . . that things would get turned around, they would get better.”  

“I think the second thing that happened as we sustained those injuries in the early to middle part of the year, in an attempt to help some of the new players we were bringing in and working with, and some of them were free agents that were on the street and we ended up having to bring them in and they played in our lineup at the end of the year, I think we tried to be very simple for them,” he said. “But in hindsight, I think we may have been guilty of maybe being too simple. Because again, it’s great for your own players that you present to them a simplistic scheme that they can execute on Sunday, but you’re also not posing enough issues for the teams you play against. You’re not giving them enough problems.”   

How awful was Sheridan defense?  Back in December of 2009,  our Andy Furman examined the 40 point debacles.  In the 2009 season, it happened an astonishing FIVE times.  And the followup statistic on history is that this last occurred to the Giants franchise in 1966.  We had to go back 43 years to see this kind of egregious violation of our senses!  Here is another article in which Andy and Pete Furman collaborated on.  Using a defensive simple rating system on Profootball reference blog, the Furmans were able to scrutinize Giants defenses of the past.  And in their findings, Sheridan's defense was a fraud. If the Giants did not play "cream puffs" early in that year, (ie Tampa Bay, Oakland, and Kansas City), the defensive numbers would have been worse.  In fact, Giants defensive players quit on Sheridan.  Our Paul Burke wrote a post about Giants' players freelancing.  Mathias Kiwanuka elaborated on the 2009 defensive disaster. 

"It started out with good intentions, players were doing more than they were asked to do in an attempt to make up or compensate for issues that we couldn't correct from one week to another," Kiwanuka explained. "And then from there it just snowballed into when you were on the field, you had 11 guys freelancing and you have no idea where the other person is going to be or what to expect and teams are taking advantage of it. Once things started going downhill, people quit buying into the system and it is tough. There were errors all over the board."

"We didn't believe in the system that we had and people didn't trust that the positions that we were put in were always going to work," Kiwanuka said when asked what went wrong last season. "We had a high enough of a maturity level to overcome it but for some reason the passion just wasn't there."     

Kiwanuka's statements from 2009 belie Sheridan's comments made at his Tampa Bay presser.  Needless to say, I am glad Sheridan was dispatched from the Giants.  And he will have his hands full as the Bucs DC.  Tampa Bay plays six division games against formidable quarterbacks.  Brees, Ryan, and up and coming Cam Newton will most likely torch the Bucs in 2012.  Unless he learned from his mistakes from 2009, it will be a dour season in Tampa.     




       

The RB position is an interesting one for Big Blue in that (at least from our outsider point of view) there is a lot of uncertainty and perhaps room for some change. All can agree that Jacobs' cannot be kept at his current price and perhaps even his version of a salary cut may not be good enough for the Giants. Bradshaw should be safe and who knows, maybe 2012 is finally his monster season. Even though Ware was more than serviceable this past year they should be looking to save money anywhere they can.

While I LOVE Doug Martin from Boise, I can't really see the Giants using a first round pick on a back in today's NFL, where the ball travels through the air not on the land. 

Brandon Jacobs

2011 Stats: 16 games, 152 carries for 571 yards. 3.8 YPC. 7 TDs.

2012 Cap Figure: $6,862,500 million

While I am a supporter of Jacobs and think he ran very well for a good amount of games this year (Jacobs was great for the Giants while Bradshaw was out this year), the Giants can certainly find someone to replicate his production at a much cheaper rate. Getting rid of Jacobs will save the Giants $4.9 million dollars and make huge inroads in their quest to travel south of the $120 million dollar cap. Jacobs is still a leader of this team, still can deliver when the right type of run is called and sure can still deliver the blow pass blocking.

It did seem like Jacobs struggled on 3^rd and 4^th and short this season though, so maybe a fresh pair of legs will do the Giants good on that front. For a fraction of the cost and only at the cost of a late draft pick, the Giants can seek out Jacobs replacement. If the Giants choose to address the spot in the draft, someone like Alfred Morris from FAU (although early, considered a fifth rounder), a little known tough as nails back who is just a power back in the truest sense of the word. He’s not nearly as big as Jacobs but is more of a between the tackles power runner (they are out there!).

While it pains me to say that taking a flyer on a late round draft pick like Morris to take over Jacobs’ duties is a step in the right direction for the Giants as they look to regain some financial flexibility. Unless of course Jacobs is willing to play next season at a salary much closer to $1,000,00. We’ll know of Jacobs’ fate with Big Blue in about three weeks or so, when his $500,000 roster bonus is set to hit.

Ahmad Bradshaw

2011 Stats: 12 games, 171 carries, 659 yards. 3.9 YPC. 9 TDs.

2012 Cap Figure: 3.25 million

Bradshaw’s status is nearly a lock considering what he brings to the table for us as the nice all-around back that he has become. But doesn’t it always feel like Bradshaw is just on the cusp of being a truly great NFL back. Would love to see him hit the hole a bit harder on certain plays (some plays encourage a cut back if it is there, like the zone/stretch plays).

Just nitpicking here, because Bradshaw has really developed into a great NFL back when he is on the field. He is tough as nails—“A power back in a scat back’s body,” as Justin Tuck said. Really has come along in the pass game too, both blocking and catching. Would love to see him bang out a 50-60 catch season in 2012

D.J. Ware

2011 Stats: 46 carries, 163 yards. 3.5 YPC.

2012 Cap Figure: 1,005,000

Ware has been a solid player for the Giants even if he has become the image associated with the No. 1 pet peeve of fans (Kevin Gilbride’s penchant for the draw).

He’s got good hands and although he may have not been the best option for those WR screens we saw him run down the stretch, he still produced decent results on them. Probably won’t happen but I wouldn’t mind seeing Ware go too (could save the Giants an extra $600k). I don’t see why this isn’t another spot that we can fill and perhaps even upgrade through either the draft or in house. A lot of people called for speedster Da’Rel Scott ($465k) to get some opportunities last season. Maybe the Giants go the draft route here if they end up keeping Jacobs? To me, it's simple any way that you slice it-- $1,005,000 is a bit much to be paying a third RB when you are trying to get back on the right side of the cap.

Despite having the worst running game in the NFL, the Giants won a Super Bowl.  In order to improve in this area, Giants GM Jerry Reese has to make some tough decisions.  With the Giants being over the salary cap, areas to start slashing salaries would be the offensive line and running back positions.   

Over the regular season the Giants’ offensive line ranked 7^th in the league.  This includes a ranking of 7^th in sacks allowed and 13^th in QB hits allowed.

If we break it down by individual positions along the line, the tackle spot becomes more of a pressing need heading into next season.  Pro Football Focus published their latest statistics for pass blocking efficiency.  Unfortunately, the Giants did not fair well on an individual basis in this category.  David Diehl finished dead last in the league with a pass blocking efficiency rating of 90.4.  The pass blocking efficiency rating takes into account sacks, quarterback hits allowed, quarterback hurries allowed divided by the number of pass blocking snaps.  The soon to be free agent, Kareem McKenzie, came in only 12 slots better in overall ranking with a 92.7 efficiency ratio.  Finally, Will Beatty, in his first year as starting LT, came in 50^th out of 75 with a 93.6 rating.

If we look at their run in the playoffs the offensive line truly only faced one very formidable test as it relates to pass blocking.  Atlanta had an aging John Abraham, Green Bay has Clay Matthews but not much else and the Patriots outside of their DT in Wilfork are not known for their pass rushers.  That leaves us with the 49ers.  In the postseason the Giants OL finished dead last in offensive line statistics.  But let’s put this into perspective.  They played more games than anyone.  The 49ers accounted for 6 of the 11 sacks the Giants gave up in the postseason and 12 of the 29 quarterback hits on Eli in the postseason.

The NFL is a copycat league.  Teams will take notice of how effective the 49ers were against the Giants. The NFC East teams will invest top dollars to improve their pass rush ability.  Overall, you could conclude that an OT position will be given high attention by the Giants’ front office heading into the NFL combine, free agency and/or the draft.  We all witnessed Eli Unitas' clutch play and elusiveness in the pocket all season and into the playoffs.  If the organization wishes to protect their $100 million investment, an upgrade at the tackle position should be a high priority.  It also wouldn't hurt to improve upon a running game that finished dead last in rushing yards with 1,427 and yards per carry, 3.5, in the regular season.

The Giants are reportedly $5 million plus over the cap.  We should expect some restructuring of contracts as “Eli has a 2012 cap number of $16.35 million and is due $11.25 million in total compensation, largely coming via a $10.75 million base salary that could be reduced and converted into a signing bonus that is prorated over the four remaining years of his contract.”  Other candidates to keep are “Safety Antrel Rolle ($7 million cash, $9 million cap), guard Chris Snee ($5.75 million cash, $8.5 million cap) and defensive tackle Chris Canty ($6.25 million cash, $7.95 million cap).”

It is doubtful that the Giants will have the cap dollars to seek free agency help at tackle but some names to keep an eye on are Jared Gaither and Demetrius Bell.

The collegiate prospects to keep an eye on at the combine are: Mike Adams (Ohio State), Riley Reiff (Iowa), Andrew Datko (Florida State) and Jonathan Martin (Stanford).

Finally, a good read on why Victor Cruz won't likely be getting a huge payday anytime soon.