Was it the smart call?  Why did Belichick allow the Giants to score the eventual game clinching touchdown in Super Bowl XLVI?

Sam Borden, writer for the New York Times, tackles this subject.  In his article titled, After Giants' Surreal Touchdown, Debates on the Strategy.  Because the Patriots lost the Super Bowl, many people think Belichick's decision to let the Giants score was a miscalculated gamble.  But was it?  

With the Giants trailing the Patriots by two points 17-15, the Giants had the ball on the Patriots six yard with a little over a minute left in the game.  After taking a hand off from Eli Manning, Ahmad Bradshaw runs toward the end zone.  It was all too easy as he reached the goal line.  Despite not getting any specific instructions from head coach Tom Coughlin,  Bradshaw teetered at the goal line.  His mind wanted him to fall short of the end zone.  On the other hand, his body fell forward.  The Giants score a touchdown and are up 21-17. 

After the game ended with a Giants victory, Belichick was asked about his controversial decision.  His rationale for letting the Giants score was based on how short a potential winning field goal attempt would have been. With the ball inside the 10, Belichick said, it is “a 90 percent field-goal conversion” rate for N.F.L. teams.  Indeed, there is a kernel of truth to his reason.

But there were other factors involved here.  

As Andy discussed in yesterday's recap, the Giants got lucky breaks on this Super Bowl run.  And none luckier than seeing a sure-handed Wes Welker drop a crucial pass with four minutes left in the game.  If Welker makes this catch, the Patriots and not the Giants are celebrating a Super Bowl Championship.  

Even with critical miscues, from the four minute mark of the second quarter , the Patriots were able to move the ball against the Giants defense.  Yes, the Patriots scored only 17 points.  But this is somewhat misleading.  The Patriots had 5 possessions in the second half.  They scored a touchdown on the opening possession of the third quarter.  After that it was punt, INT, punt, and failed Hail Mary.  On the third and fourth possessions, the Patriots were getting into a rhythm.  Brady's long pass intended for Gronkowski was picked by Giants linebacker Chase Blackburn. And the fourth possession snarled because Welker could not secure the football.  I believe Belichick made the decision to let the Giants score because he KNEW their best chance of winning was by scoring a touchdown.  I do not think he has faith in his kicker Stephen Gostkowski.

In 2006, after clutch kicker Adam Vinatieri left the Patriots and signed with the Colts, Stephen Gostkowski has been the Patriots plackicker.  If you look at his statisitics on ProFootball Reference, he appears to have good numbers.  In 2011, he had a very admirable 84.8 percent FG conversion rate. Over his entire NFL career, Gostkowski has an 84.4 percent conversion rate.  So with these impressive numbers, it would seem he is a better than average kicker. But is he?

Remember in Super Bowl XLII, the Patriots were leading the Giants 7-3 early in the third quarter.  The Patriots were looking to pad their lead.  On a important 3rd and 7 from the Giants twenty five yard line, Brady was dumped on the ground by Michael Strahan for a six yard loss.  Strahan's sack moved the ball back to the Giants 31 yard line.  Instead of opting to attempt a 48 yard field goal, Belichick decided to go for it on 4th and 11.  Again a risky decision by Belichick, and like his decision in Super Bowl XLVI, it too was foiled.  Brady's pass fell incomplete. The Giants got the ball on downs. And Belichick did not trust Gostkowski in 2008.  It sure seems he still does not trust him.  Why is this?

Let's look at Gostkowski's numbers from 40-49 yard field goals.  Over his career, he has attempted 34 field goals and converted only 25 of them.  Therefore, despite having 84.4 percent overall conversion rate, his longer field goal percentage is 73 percent.  So he is not as accurate from longer distances.  Most likely, if Belichick did not use his matador defensive strategy, the game could have come down to a long field goal.  When Belichick was the defensive coordinator of the Giants in 1990, he witnessed first hand a pressure packed Super Bowl deciding kick. Buffalo's Scott Norwood's 47 yard attempt went wide right.  And Norwood talked about his missed long field goal in Super Bowl XXV, "Maybe you overdo the analysis," he says. "The truth is that, at 47 yards, the  percentages are against you. If it were 30 yards, O.K., but 47 .... At that  distance, the average in the NFL is under 50 percent. You're working against the  numbers. Maybe you break everything down too much. A quarterback doesn't get two  throws a game and then sit down and analyze where his feet were and how his arm  worked on the one he missed. It's 1.3 seconds. You go out and do it."   

Speaking of the percentages, like Norwood stated, the rate of field goal conversion from long distances especially in a Super Bowl are against you.  This is why Belichick made his gutsy decision.

SUPER BOWL CHAMPIONS!  4 TITLES!  Incredible.  Winning is all that counts!  Nailbiter to the end!  Eli Manning has ice water in his veins.  Two Q4 Super Bowl drives for TWO TITLES.  Words do not do this celebration justice.

I have a few thoughts to put on this post and to let everyone comment and celebrate this title together.

LUCK!  You need to have luck to win titles.  We talked about the breaks the Giants got 4 years ago, like dropped balls by the Cowboys and the Flozell Adams injury.  Well, this Super Bowl victory came complete with AT LEAST SIX HUGE LUCKY BREAKS FOR THE GIANTS THAT I CAN COUNT, probably more:

1) The 12 man on the field penalty by the Pats negates a Cruz TURNOVER.  Two plays later the Giants score 7 on a Cruz TD! That is incredibly good fortune.

2)  The Nicks fumble is recovered by a Giant.  Disaster averted.

3) The Bradshaw fumble is recovered by a Giant.  Disaster averted.

4) Welker drops a sure reception right in his hands. After the game, he took the blame: "It’s a play I never drop, I always make."  The drive is stopped and the Giants get the ball back in the hands of Eli to go ahead and win it.

5) The Hail Mary goes the Giants' way when the Pats can't get the tipped ball before it hits the ground.

6) ROB GRONKOWSKI WAS INEFFECTIVE.  Thank you Pollard.

Karma? GRATITUDE!!  The Giants were better than the Pats in so many ways, but they couldn't show it on the scoreboard until the end.  The Patriots were worthy opponents who simply fell short.  One bad bounce of the ball and we are downcast.  Someone had to lose, and Eli made sure we won!

Tom Coughlin and his staff get all the props enabling the Gmen to win a title!  We have to give so much credit to Perry Fewell for changing and making this Super Bowl run happen.   The Giants kept Rodgers to 20.  The Giants kept Brady to 17.  DEFENSE WINS CHAMPIONSHIPS.

Let's respect every ounce of effort from both sides.  The Giants were also screwed on a few penalties, particularly the Q2 dagger of the Boothe call which set the entire tempo in reverse, turning a potential 16-3 game into a 10-9 deficit with nothing to show for the first half.  That chicken sh*t call was the kind of stuff that Bill Walsh quantifies as the 20% of the game you cannot control.  It is fantastic that we never have to think about that call again, the way we still remember the holding call on Keith Hamilton in Supe XXXV.  This is why you need breaks.  So that you can forget about the garbage that can cost you a title.

If you are a Patriot fan, you are reliving a nightmare from 4 years ago.  Frankly, I for one and am so grateful for the Giants to be on the winning side of this game.

We'll have all week and the rest of our lives to celebrate this win and every single tremendous achievement:  Super Mario's 38 yard reception was sweet music.  Chase Blackburn's INT.  The quiet great work of our corners, Aaron Ross and Corey Webster.  The OL for keeping Eli clean when it counted.  Hynoski and Snee on the fumble recoveries.  The Tuck Sacks.  The JPP menacing, with batted balls and ubiqitous impact.  The Tuck Safety that makes this a TD margin (for Pats at end) instead of a FG margin.  Great WR catches all day long by Cruz, Nicks and Mario.  All the small ball guys (Hynoski!) underneath.  Linval Joseph for a solid game.  Keep adding to this list. (Weatherford great punting, physical Jacobs, Boley 9 tackles..) 

NY GIANTS SUPER BOWL XLVI CHAMPIONS!!!!!!!

ELI MANNING- YOU ARE GOING UP ON THE BANNER FOR THE 4TH TITLE!  Super Bowl MVP AGAIN!

Yes, blog commenters, we've been analyzing Super Bowl XLVI more than enough times to count.  So let's see if we can keep these final thoughts on the game relatively short and 'super' sweet.  As a reminder, follow us on Twitter tonight for intragame comments.

1) Follow the Gronk.  Be alert for a scenario of partial or reasonable effectiveness early and then a disappearing act after halftime.  The Giants (and their fans) all expect him to play, so we are operating under the Dwight Freeney model of presence felt early and then significantly diminished output after the 30 minute break.  Why is Gronkowski so important?  Follow the TDs.  GRONK LED THE PATS IN TOUCHDOWNS.  And it wasn't even close.  18 for him, the next closest was the law firm with 11 from up close.  Welker had 9.  Hernandez 7.  So the difference in that offense with and without him is huge. 

2) Use the Tight End.  If you are relatively new to this NY Giants blog, know this- we love the Tight End because he is the Red Zone buster.  One of the reasons why Gilbride has 'fits and starts' in the red zone is because he is incredibly inconsistent with his use of the TE when he gets in close.  (Wasn't that polite?!)  Why is it so important in this game?  Because NE has a very poor defense (#31 out of 32 by yards) but they are only 15th in POINTS ALLOWED.  They bend but they don't break.  Simms specifically mentioned this this AM in his final XLVI commentary on WFAN (and felt it would be a lower scoring game because of both teams stopping the opponent in the red zone).  Break the PATS in the red zone with the Tight End.  If Ballard has not healed from his knee injury, that means once again using Beckum and/or Pascoe.  Who scored the winning TD vs the Pats on the final drive into the red zone in Week 9?  The tight end.  USE HIM.

3) Maybe the Giants "overconfidence" is just supreme confidence.  Simms on Showtime was a little scared about just how much confidence the Giants players are exuding.  (He still picks them.)  But we'll take a different tack- maybe it is based on a very special and unique feeling that they are witnessing amongst their team, that everything is falling into place.  Maybe it is a poker tell they found.  Remember that in XLII, Strahan was relaxed and confident while Coughlin was a nervous wreck, because Stray knew the defense had a tell for pass or run on the Pats.  That'll give you confidence.

3a) Eli:Lucas as Simms:Rose Bowl??  If the Patriots do not figure out how to get to Manning, this game could be a turkey shoot.  No, I am not underestimating the former (see #4 below).  In fact I do believe BB is going to work his damnedest to make Manning uncomfortable.  (The best way to do that is with SPORADIC pressure, not the consistent pressure offered by Rob Ryan where Eli could adjust and burn you.)  After Eli faced less than hospitable playing conditions the past two weeks, the benign conditions of the dome could be akin to Simms arriving in Pasadena after the 17-0 wind day.  Super Bowl crowd noise is not a factor in audibling because many of the people in the stadium aren't rooting for either team.  The diehards are the lottery winners from season ticket holders, and they get stuffed up into 1/4th of the upper deck for each team.  So maybe I am foolishly confident too.  But if the Giants protect Eli well and do not get flustered by the sporadic schemes of Belichick, Eli rates to have a very productive day in the confines of a track meet dome that has near perfect playing conditions.

4) The Belichick Evil Genius Factor.  Let's face it- every Giants fan is cautiously optimistic because we believe the Giants are the better team but we just don't know what kind of adjustments that Hoodie is going to throw at the Gmen.  You can count on Belichick to throw in new plays that the Giants have never seen on film. Two weeks is enough time for the evil genius to stir up a respectable brew.  The Giants simply have to be disciplined and answer those punches.  Simms: "The Giants need to tackle well today."  It isn't that much more complicated than that.

5) Bradshaw in Space. Simms mentioned it this morning, we mentioned it Friday- the lesser known important player that the Giants have to use as a difference-maker is Ahmad Bradshaw.  PUT HIM IN SPACE.  We call it small ball.  Boy can it be big.  Simms separately noted how the Patriots will give you the underneath to protect their weaker secondary.  Exploit that w Bradshaw, because if he makes one LBer miss he can carve up yards.  He'll move the sticks, he'll settle down your team, he'll give the defense some rest, he'll get Eli in a rhythm... small ball creates BIG things.  I'd love to see 6 screens today, but I know better than to count on Gilbride for that.  Can I ask for 6 flares?  If we see 6 flares to Bradshaw, that should do the trick.  I'm not even talking about the checkdowns, those are extra.  I'm talking 6 plays where the Giants design the WR routes to allow Bradshaw some space underneath to get the ball as the first option.  One more thing Ahmad- we've given you the love; please give Giants fans the love in return by protecting the ball when you carry it.

6) Win or lose, it has been a great season.  Losing in 2008 was a bitter pill because the Giants were the team to beat that year and they beat themselves when they lost to the Eagles.  2011 has been a tremendous turnaround.  At 7-7, we despaired.  At 9-7, we believed.  If we make it to 13-7, we'll be overjoyed.   

On Saturday night, the Hall of Fame selection committee snubbed Bill Parcells.  Parcells, a two-time Super Bowl championship coach, was denied entry into the Pro Football Hall of Fame.  Perhaps voters have a short-term memory. His last stint with the Cowboys went south.  And perhaps this could be a reason why Parcells was kept out.  Whatever the reason, Parcells should have been a member of the 2012 Hall of Fame class.  Peter King agrees.  Sports Illustrated's Peter King makes a good case.  "Bill Parcells probably should be a favorite to make it (10th all-time in wins,  two Super Bowl wins, took four franchises to the playoffs), but you never know  how much momentum new guys will have in the room among the 44 voters. Some of  the voters aren't fond of the prickly Parcells, but he does have more wins than  the four coaches -- Marv Levy, George Allen, John Madden and Hank Stram --  who've been enshrined since 2000, and none of them have more Super Bowl rings  than Parcells." 

But 2012 is not going to be his year. In fact, now there are four coaches with TWO Lombardi's not in the Hall of Fame.  Bill Parcells. George Seifert. Tom Flores and Jimmy Johnson. (Thanks JA.)   Maybe in 2013, Parcells will be wearing a yellow blazer.  However, one of his disciples, Tom Coughlin or Bill Belichick, will be wearing a new ring in 2012. 

For Belichick, with a win, he can erase the nightmare of the 2007 almost perfect season.  Without Eli Manning's and David Tyree's last minute heroics, Belichick would be looking for a ring for his thumb this year.  If the Patriots lose to the Giants on Sunday, there will be discussions about Belichick's mystique.  Is he a great coach?  Did he reap THREE Super Bowl trophies because of cheating?  Yesterday, on this blog, Andy floated this idea because former NFL players tend to agree.  Kurt Warner, Marshall Faulk, and Amani Toomer believe Belichick's success stemmed from his videotaping. During an interview this week, a reporter asked Belichick about his three Super Bowls being besmirched. Belichick became testy.  "We moved on from everything in the past. We are focused on this game. That's it."  Belichick got caught with breaking NFL rules.  From the NFL's Constitution & Bylaws (article 9): "Any use by any club at any time, from the start to the finish of any game in which such club is a participant, of any communications or information-gathering equipment, other than Polaroid-type cameras or field telephones, shall be prohibited, including without limitation videotape machines, telephone tapping, or bugging devices, or any other form of electronic devices that might aid a team during the playing of a game." Belichick and the Patriots were fined and lost a number one draft selection.  NFL commissioner Roger Goodell  found no evidence that the St. Louis Rams' walk through practice before Super Bowl XXXVI was filmed by the Patriots, as the Boston Herald reported Feb. 2, citing an anonymous source. The Boston Herald ran a story about this without verification.  And they had to retract and apologize for doing so.  The Rams lost to the Patriots because Rams head coach Mike Martz was outcoached.  Former Rams wide receiver Ricky Proehl talked about the Rams loss to the Patriots.

“New England did a great job of game planning our offense,” he said. “They showed blitz and dropped into zone. They basically rushed three and dropped eight. And [Martz's] comment was ‘we’re going to throw that ball anyway.”

Martz’s desire to continue throwing the ball instead of running it, was a choice that according to Proehl was not well received by the Rams’ offensive players. As a matter of fact, during the Super Bowl, Proehl stongly suggested to Martz about running the ball more.  Martz's response: F*ck You.  This exchange could be found in the book The Education of a Coach written by David Halberstam.  

Does Belichick have a lot on the line on Sunday?  You betcha.  In order for him to silence his critics, his team has to beat the Giants on Sunday.  If this happens,  this whole Spygate drama will be remembered as an ahem attack.  

As for Tom Coughlin, if the Giants win on Sunday, he will have two Lombardi trophies.  In the past few days, I was listening to WFAN radio in New York.  Some Giants fans were comparing Tom Coughlin with Bill Parcells.  This is predicated on Coughlin hoisting another Lombardi trophy.  This comparison is preposterous.  First, Coughlin has been the Giants head coach for eight years and won playoff games in just two of them.   As we have documented time and again on this blog, Coughlin has been underachieving with talent for years.  There has been too many wasted season under Coughlin.  On the other hand,  Parcells won consistently over his entire span as coach of the Giants.  His teams did not collapse in second halves of seasons.  His teams did not quit on him.  More importantly, some people do not remember how tough it was for Parcells.  When he took over for the Giants, they had a losing tradition or lousy football for 17 plus years.  As Giants fans, we had one season of respite under Ray Perkins.  Furthermore, when Parcells coached he had to deal with a much stronger NFL than it is today.  Back in Parcells' tenure, the San Francisco 49ers, Washington Redskins, and Chicago Bears were all powerhouses.  From 1983 to 1990, the San Francisco 49ers won the Super Bowl THREE TIMES.  The Washington Redskins won ONCE. Chicago captured their title in 1985.  Under Parcells, the Giants won twice.  Think about this for a minute.  In eight years, the NFC won the Super Bowl SEVEN out of eight years.  Nonetheless, the better teams were in the NFC.  Although I am not a Tom Coughlin fan, I think winning another Super Bowl cements him as a tremendous coach.  But he is not in the same class as Parcells. 

Here are some miscellaneous thoughts as we head into Super Bowl XLVI.

1) A few days ago Glenn wrote a piece in praise of the work of Bill Belichick.  I have admiration for the DC that brought us XXI and XXV.  I did comment though that we need to be reminded about the cheating that took place, especially Francesa's BLUNT reporting that both Faulk and Warner (XXXVI) knew that the only way the Patriots could be so prepared was to know what was taking place before it happened.  In H2, the Rams ditched their SB playbook and went to unplanned stuff with much better results.  Unfortunately for them, it was too little too late. 

I find the comments of Amani Toomer to be typically candid and blunt.  Asked if he would put an asterisk next to the Pats SB wins:  “I would,” he said in an interview on “The Jim Rome Show” yesterday. “I would, definitely. Without question."  You have to consider that Toomer is not one to back away from the truth.  His comments about Super Bowl XXXV 9 years later are stunning in their honesty.  Given that I have not read any challenges to what Toomer said about that Super Bowl, and given the lack of comments to deny any of the cheating allegations in the Patriots past, I am feeling pretty certain about what took place.  All we have in concrete terms is the franchise's loss of a 1st round draft pick in 2008, but it is pretty obvious that the NFL cannot afford to admit that one title (XXXVI) was stolen and two others are tainted. 

2) There is a piece from yesterday that is written by Senior NFL Columnist Clark Judge of CBS Sports.  He asks aloud with complete bewilderment at how Gilbride doesn't get the love.  To the uninitiated here on this NY Giants blog, we are not the biggest fans of Kevin Gilbride.  We have documented over the years with maddening frustration at how the Giants OC weaves straw from gold.  Whether it is the Steelers- Giants game in 2008, or even the NFC Championship game vs SF only 13 days ago, we know what the KG story is.  The Giants scored exactly one TD in the game vs a very good Niners defense (w/o the aid of a turnover).  We don't think we are completely clueless when we actually called for the play that generated the TD, using Pascoe in the red zone.  In fact, after rereading the Final Thoughts Before the NFC Championship, I'd say that we nailed the game, the morning before kickoff.  The only thing Clark Judge nailed was his complete lack of knowledge of Gilbride, the one who coaches to tendency to his team's detriment.  Keep going into the teeth of the Steeler defense, KG.  Keep going into the teeth of the 49er defense, KG.  Keep asking why the phone doesn't ring for KG, Mr. Judge.

Maybe, just maybe, KG will break tendency and turn the strobe light back on for a few moments in XLVI.  I'm not holding my breath, but I sure will throw him the props if he does so, because it will mean another Giants title.

3) The NY Post writers are looking for a Giants victory, but not as biased and wide as I would have expected.  10 out of a total of 14 (71%) pick the Gmen.  I'm happy it wasn't more lopsided.  And in terms of trying to gauge consensus, I want to share a story from 4 years ago before XLII.  Someone I was chatting with who knew I was a Giants fan told me he liked the Patriots to win the game.  I smiled politely and finished the conversation.  Then someone else who overheard the exchange came up to me and politely said, don't worry, he's always wrong about his sports predictions.  Fast forward to four years later, and I was wearing my Giants tie (yes, I wear it ~ once per year to amortize the gift from my wife), which prompted many smiles from others.  As luck would have it, I bumped into the same man again.  His prediction was for a comfortable Patriots win in XLVI.  Translated-> Good news for Giants fans!

4) There is one player who quietly does his job, gets less praise from us than he deserves, but let me rectify that in some small part by singling out the work of Matthias Kiwanuka.  Everyone wants to throw a parade for Reese, but let's remember that this guy ignores LBer year after year, to the team's disadvantage.  So the coaches have to make Grant into a pseudo LBer.  And they have to make a 6'5" 266 lb DEFENSIVE END into a Linebacker.  Let's remember that he suffered a season-ending injury in 2007, which forced him to miss XLII.  Here, in 2011, he is playing out of position and he is doing the best he can to help the team.  Belichick is going to target him, because Kiwi really does not belong in coverage.  But I'll be rooting for this team guy because it's not his fault that his GM keeps drafting DL instead of LBer.  He just quietly sucks it up and does what he is asked to do.  That means he doesn't get the glory of Osi, JPP, and Tuck, but let's hope he gets the ring.  I'm sure that'll be enough for the quiet warrior.