Three Parts to this post.  Part One is a Wall Street Journal article which says the Giants Secondary May Deserve More Credit for the team's recent surge.  Part Two is Phil Simms on WFAN's NFL Now, who discusses the Giants, Ravens, Texans and Niners.  Part Three is our color on the first two parts plus some last minute thoughts leading into Green Bay.  A reminder to follow us on Twitter during the game.  Hopefully we'll get a few Tweets from Rich Conforti, who'll be at the game.

Part One

Please click on the above link.  If you cannot get the link, google the exact words and you'll get access.  Essentially what Michael Salfino did was examine the pass rush in these last three games vs the Jets/Boys/Falcons and then compare that to the rest of the season.  He added sacks, hurries and knockdowns, then divided that by the total number of passes to get a "disruption rate."  The Giants had a disruption rate of 19.3% during the three game run, while they have had a rate of 20.6% during the whole season.  That number is close enough to essentially be identical.  The pressure, Osi, Tuck and all, has been the same.  What has been different is tighter coverage.  This NY Giants blog showed in the recap of the ATL win that 82% of the time the Giants were in man coverage and they gave up less to the WRs in those 82% of the times than the 18% of time they were in that passive zone.

Part Two

NYG-GB.  Simms had to review the Packers-Giants game earlier this year because the following week he was covering the Packers game versus Oakland. He spent a few moments qualifying his leadoff remark, explaining that it is not related to the fact that he was a former Giant or that he lives in the NY area, but merely based on an objective observation:

"I think the Giants are more talented than the Packers overall."

When the Packers have the ball:

In terms of analyzing the outcome of the game, you can't overlook homefield and Aaron Rodgers.  Simms studied the first game.  The Giants are a different team.  Rodgers is the best thrower in the NFL on the run.  Teams can cover the Green Bay offense.  Relatively simple, relies on the great thrower.  Make him stay in the pocket and you take away 8-10 plays per game.

When the Giants have the ball: 

GB needs to take away Victor Cruz.  Make them go to the side.  Take your chances vs Hakeem Nicks.   Packers were close to making big plays and the Giants answered them.  Giants were close to and could have made more mistakes.  They didn't, but it was close.  Packers defense is not very good, don't pressure the passer, Clay Matthews is the only one, Woodson is not overrated.  Blitzes, calculated risks to steal the ball.  The corners have been awful, have given up a lot of big plays. Inside the run defense is not doing it up front. When the Giants needed to drive the ball down the field to tie the game near the end, they had relatively little resistance.  Outside a few questionable calls by the Giants, it was easy to handle the Packers defense.

Simms did not make a prediction here, but earlier this week on Showtime he took the Packers.  Interesting that all three Showtime panelists took the underdog 49ers.  All took the Packers.

BAL-HOU.  Flacco is a "pretty damn good NFL QB" who unnecessarily takes too much heat and is a "whipping boy for the press."  His WRs are flawed, as Boldin is good but not fast, and the rookie Smith is fast but inexperienced and not good.  Francesa believes that TJ Yates, who is a 3rd string QB, is not ready for this test.  Simms feels that Houston's defense can force a turnover to keep it close.

SF.  Mike Francesa says that Jim Harbaugh has done "one the best coaching jobs I have ever seen."  And Phil Simms immediately concurred.  Simms went on to explain that because Alex Smith was a #1 pick, that that worked to his advantage in that he has been afforded numerous opportunities to develop that would not normally be afforded to any other QB.  With time and hard work, Smith has gotten better.  If he was not afforded so many opportunities, he would not be where he is right now, an NFL QB.  He would be out of the league.

Part Three

Salfino's statistics validate that the secondary's coverages are making the difference.  It is beneficial to our understanding, because this blog has contended all year that coaching schemes were holding the defense back.  NOW THROW IN WHAT SIMMS SAID ABOUT THE 9-7 GIANTS HAVING MORE TALENT THAN THE 15-1 PACKERS.  And also throw in how one coach in SF can turn around a lost franchise in ONE year.  What does it add up to? What does it tell you?  It tells me that the NFL is a coach's league, it is not a player's league.  45 players need to be choreographed in an intricate ballet.  The Giants coaches have made necessary adjustments in the nick of time. 

Final thoughts on the game: 15 mph winds are expected.  This is not a plus for Eli.  But I will be happy when the Giants are in a lot of man coverage, because the 15 mph winds will make passing more difficult for Rodgers too.  His passes will have some error that only a wind gust can explain.  This is precisely why man coverage will make his job tougher too.  As was noted earlier this week, Rodgers is going to have plenty of success today.  Let's just make his life a little harder than normal so that Eli and his offense can compete.  The Giants will need some breaks in this game to win.  As the 49ers showed us, make your own breaks.  I am not predicting a Giants win.  What I will predict is that the Giants have a credible shot.  GO GIANTS!  This Super Bowl XLVI Championship is up for grabs, and the Giants have as much of a credible shot as anyone else.  The Giants can play with the Packers, The Niners, the Ravens, the Patriots.  A title is there for the taking.  GO GET IT.

Good riddance to the New Orleans Saints.  Don't let the door hit your a** on the way out. 

If the NY Giants can pull off a great upset today and beat the Packers, it really should not matter who the Giants would face the following week.  You play whoever is in your path.  With that said, there was not a single Giants fan who wanted to see the team have to go through that bleeping dome to get to Super Bowl XLVI. 

The SF 49ers will be a formidible opponent for either the Packers or the Giants.  But let's get real here.  The 49ers needed a whole lotta miracles to pull off the upset.  AND FIVE TURNOVERS.  So permit me to state that the better team did not win.  The better team that day won because they had a little extra and made some of their own luck.  If that game is played 10 times, the Saints should and would win more than half the time.  But between some uncharacteristic sloppiness by Brees and the fact that they were not playing in that track meet dome, they lost.  Bad for the Saints, good for the Giants if the Giants can win today.  It all means absolutely nothing if the Giants lose.  Let's make it mean something and we'll have all week to talk 49ers.

Separately, if you missed the game yesterday between the Saints and Niners, you have to watch it.  And if you have not DVR'd it, find a way to watch it, perhaps through a purchase of the NFL Game Rewind.  It was that good.  It was arguably one of the best football games I have ever watched, an instant classic.  We tweeted this game, and it was a great one.  We'll be tweeting today also; Rich Conforti will be at Lambeau Field, so we'll be connected and he'll be able to report what he is seeing as well.

There is a play toward the end that I do not want to spoil.  But here is the scenario:  you are down by 1 or 2 points and there are ~2 minutes left.  You are going to go into the end zone for a TD.  Should you stop yourself at the 1 yard line.  It is obvious that you should, because this way you can kill off the rest of the clock and get your FG.  Being up by 1 with essentially no time left is a much greater certainty of victory than handing the ball to Drew Brees with 2 minutes left and a 5-7 point deficit (depending on the 2 pt conversion).  PLAYERS DO NOT THINK THIS WAY.  They just score the 7 and hand the ball to the opposing offense.  I remember an onside Kickoff vs the Giants on the last day of the 2000 regular season when Jacksonville (then coached by Coughlin) trailed by 7 with ~minutes left.  Jason Sehorn fields the onside attempt cleanly and runs like a bullet straight in for a TD.  But kneeling at the 1 yd line would have been better, as the clock was the bigger enemy than the points.  The Giants held on but it was possible for Jacksonville to theoretically come back otherwise.  In the situation yesterday, it was not wise to give the ball back to Drew Brees.  The first down and the Akers lock FG were far more lethal than a TD.  I do not want to hear about the chances for Akers missing what would effectively be a PAT.  Is that as large as Brees scoring a TD with ~2:10 left?  Cmon!  PLAYERS DO NOT THINK THIS WAY.  (Remember, this is limited to a situation where you are down by 1 or 2 pts with very little time left on the clock.  If you are down by 3 or more, just score the TD.)  

We have often heard the phrase - "the NFL is a copycat league."  After the Giants upset the Patriots in SB XLII, teams started copying the Giants game plan the following season to combat the Patriots offense.

I am not a big fan of everything that Mike Francesa says, but I was listening to him give his monologue today and I think he made a lot of very good points:

1) The Giants are a big play team.  They are #1 in the league in plays for 30+ yds.  Do not try to make them a possession/run team. 

2) The Packers have won their last 13 in Lambeau.  This is not going to be an easy game in any scenario.

3)  The Giants do have a shot, a credible shot.  (Of course..) They will need the pass rush to win this game.

4) Look for some no-huddle from the Packers at certain times when they like what they have vs the Giants defensive package, ie w/o Osi (who is playing more on passing downs) and Tuck on that particular snap.

5) Of course the Giants will run for balance.  But they do not have an effective running game. It shows in how weak they are in short yardage.  Despite their run success in recent games, asterisks abound, ie Giants run yardage piled on vs ATL later when the game was already getting out of reach.

6) Aaron Rodgers is special.  It will take a very strong effort to win against him.

7) Mike McCarthy and his coaching staff are always well prepared.  Their OL may be coming back from injury, but they'll make sure they are ready. 

8) Re the bye, in the old days, it helped the #1 and #2 seeds.  But in today's game, every team is so close in talent that the bye is working in favor of the teams that have to play through the wild card round.    

9) Relaying a conversation from another NFL coach, Mike passes along the coach's comment that "the Giants, when they come out on the field, they are MEN."

10) I think that earlier in the week, Mike also said the following- you cannot dig a hole vs Rodgers and the Packers.

Andy here.  Usually I agree with a majority of Mike Francesa says because he obviously knows a lot, but typically I will disagree with him on one or two points somewhere.  Not today.  Today, everything he said was pitch perfect.  Namely, the Giants have a credible shot in this game, but do not go thinking this is the Giants game to lose.  It is ultimately the Packers game to lose.  If the Packers play their 'A game' and the Giants play theirs, it will be a great game, a close game.  But the edge will go to Aaron Rodgers/Packers because he is the best in the game.

Mike Francesa's point about not being a possession team does NOT contradict what we have been saying about small ball.  We advocate "Small ball" so that Eli can be in more of a rhythm so that he can be fluid for the big play.  You get more opportunities for more big plays when you move the sticks.  And since we agree that the Giants run game is not who the Giants are, we say that you use the 'small ball' passing game to your RB and TE as a way to give the offense the same balance that you would otherwise get from a more effective running game. 

Can the Giants win? Definitely.  I do not agree with the point spread, as I feel that America wants to put their money on the cheeseheads to buy a piece of the champions.  That is Vegas, balancing the money (which incidentally, did get bet down to 7.5, but is back to 8).  I would make the spread somewhere between 4 and 6 points.  This is where Mike's point about the bye (#8) is so true... the Colts won as a team that did not have the bye.  The Giants won w/o the bye.  They lost when they had the bye.  AZ came oh so close to winning the Super Bowl, and they were w/o the bye.  Green Bay won last year as the wild card.  So the Giants have to use that rhythm of playing through to remain competitive and get off to a great start in Q1.  Attention Kevin Gilbride- do not have any ideas of taking Q1 off, like your offense did vs the Jets and Falcons.  The reason why the Giants had so much competitiveness vs GB in the first game was because they hit Beckum for a TD early and were there for 60 minutes.  Anything less will not be enough on Sunday.  They can win this game but it will not be with too many mistakes.  So many on this blog are remembering the Dallas '07 playoff matchup.  GOOD.  Remember that it took a lot of luck AND 60 minutes to beat them.  (Maybe this time, if we have the lead with 9:27 left in Q4, we won't go prevent, eh Kevin???!)    

1) needed to win at end of the season in a year that had underperformance just weeks prior

2) played and lost to the undefeated team, 38-35, during the regular season

3) played a wildcard round game, winning strongly vs an NFC South team

4) playing the #1 seed in the divisional round

5) ~8-9 point underdogs in divisional round, w line moving down to 7.5

6) other divisional round licking their chops to have us win so that they can play at home again

7) no respect because of a season of up and down play before the playoffs

8) Eli playing very well

9) Giants pass rush

10) Jacobs and Bradshaw

11) questionable secondary

12) Lambeau Field

13) got beat by the NFC Divisional Round Opponent in Regular Season

14) got beat by the NFC Championship Opponent (if we get there!) in Regular Season

15) Tuck, Osi, Kiwi, Ross, Blackburn(!), CWeb, Eli, DeOssie(!),Tollefson, Jacobs, Bradshaw, McKenzie, Snee, Tynes